COVID Impact on Draft

[Dolphster]

The draft is somewhere between an educated guess and a dart throw most years.  With all the draft capital that the Dolphins have for the 2021 draft, I'm concerned because with the 2020 college season being reduced/cancelled, a lot of top college players opting out of the 2020 season, and now the combine being cancelled (as of 3 days ago), the Dolphins (and every other team) are going into the draft with a lot less "actionable intel" on the players.  I'm expecting there to be more busts than usual in this draft across the NFL.  Of course the upside is that it will also enhance the possibility of some diamonds slipping down in the rounds because they didn't have a full final college season or the combine to showcase their talent.  My understanding is that there will still be Pro Days at colleges but those are always designed to showcase the positives and hide the negatives in the players.

[Dave Gray]

I'm expecting there to be more busts than usual in this draft across the NFL. 

That's a fair prediction.  But it seems like such a crap shoot already, I think it may be even easier to pick guys, because you have less information to go on (I know that doesn't make sense on the surface).  You can just pick guys at positions that you need based on whether or not they've been good.  You don't have all these extra layers of combines, where they're measuring jumping ability and speed between cones and all this other stuff.  You don't have all these extra pro days and senior games where everyone is jockeying for some kind of recency bias.

I think there's a lot less chance of drafting a guy because he had a recent flare and you just have a feeling about him.  We're likely to err on sure bets and take fewer risks, no?

[EDGECRUSHER]

On the flip side, there could be less because every year you have a handful of guys projected in the 2nd round to go in the Top 15 because they have great combines that overshadow their college performance. QBs are usually the main culprit with this.

[Dolphster]

Valid points by both of you.  It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.  Funny that you mention that, Edge.  Because I was going to add to my original post something to the effect of the NFL unemployment line being filled with guys who ran "amazing 40s" at the Combine or Pro Day. 

[Dave Gray]

It really does happen both ways.

You see guys that weren't great in college, but have all the measurables and you think it might be because they haven't grown up yet or been coached to their potential or haven't had the chance because of team politics or that their team was bad...whatever.  And then they just don't translate to the NFL.

But you also have really, really great NFL players like Eric Crouch or Manti Te'o (or even Tim Tebow) that don't meet the traditional measurables and they don't have nearly the same careers in the NFL.

[Dolphster]

It really does happen both ways.

You see guys that weren't great in college, but have all the measurables and you think it might be because they haven't grown up yet or been coached to their potential or haven't had the chance because of team politics or that their team was bad...whatever.  And then they just don't translate to the NFL.

But you also have really, really great NFL players like Eric Crouch or Manti Te'o (or even Tim Tebow) that don't meet the traditional measurables and they don't have nearly the same careers in the NFL.

My personal favorites are the "too slow" and "too small" guys who have outstanding careers because they can just flat out play football.  That is part of why Zach Thomas was always one of my favorite Dolphins. 

[ArtieChokePhin]

They cancelled the Combine but they are still having Pro Days at colleges.  Plus all postseason college football games have been cancelled with the exception of the Senior Bowl.  

NFL scouting departments have their work cut out for them.

[Sunstroke]

Since I think that too many NFL personnel folks tend to overthink things on draft prospects, and put too much weight into combine results, I actually think this year's draft will end up having fewer draft busts.

[Dolphster]

Since I think that too many NFL personnel folks tend to overthink things on draft prospects, and put too much weight into combine results, I actually think this year's draft will end up having fewer draft busts.

Interesting perspective.  I suppose that is as possible as anything else since this is pretty unchartered territory this year.

[masterfins]

I brought this topic up months ago before we new what was going to happen with the college season, or when some conferences and players opted out for the season.

This is why I hope the Dolphins take some reliable players in the first two rounds, like Sewell, whether they need that position filled or not.  They could always trade away a great player the following year for multiple picks, like was done with Tunsil & Minkah.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Think that as with every draft more picks is better than high picks.  You have a better chance at getting one impact player with 2 second round picks than one first round pick.

[CF DolFan]

Since I think that too many NFL personnel folks tend to overthink things on draft prospects, and put too much weight into combine results, I actually think this year's draft will end up having fewer draft busts.

I've always felt teams outsmart themselves in the draft. I know the Dolphins have. Have a need then take the best available option or take the best player available. Seems like too many try to find the diamond in the rough and think they can make it shine but most times it doesn't work out.