Russia's invasion of Ukraine

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

What does this bolded part mean.  Is this directed at me?  Because if it is, adjust your bifocals and scroll up to my original message.

 The Ukrainian military is full of Nazis, but it's weird no one is talking about that, or if you do you're automatically a Russian sympathizer.

The first half is false.  And in fact the only reason to state the false first half is if you are a Russian sympathizer.  

It is the equivalent of making the statement. "The sun revolves around the earth, but nobody talks about that or if you bring it up you're automatically accused of being ignorant of basic astronomy facts"  

[Dave Gray]

What's the endgame for Ukraine?

Is it just to make it costly and a slog for Russia to stay there?  A war of attrition?  Just bleed them out of resources and will until it becomes too unpopular to stay?

And for Russia -- I assume it's to kill Zelensky and put in a puppet government, then use that to reclaim Crimea officially?  ...and this is all to keep NATO away from their borders?

[Spider-Dan]

Endgame for Ukraine is to stall until international pressure pushes Putin to the negotiation table.  Sadly, I don't see any way that Ukraine is getting Crimea back, and I'm not even sure that Russia will be forced to backtrack their declaration of independence for the regions in eastern Ukraine.

Putin has a couple of goals.  There are his fake stated goals of "de-Nazifying Ukraine" and "stopping NATO from reaching Russia's borders," but those fake goals are fake.  If Russia annexes Ukraine, they will suddenly have 4 more NATO states on their (new) border.

Then there are his other stated goals:
1) Ukraine and Russia are "one people," and Ukraine is not a "real country."  This is a straightforward argument for annexation of Ukraine.
2) Restoration of the pre-Soviet Russian Empire, which would involve annexing most of eastern Europe (including many countries that are part of NATO)

[Dave Gray]

Does he want to just make Ukraine part of Russia -- or does he want to keep it Ukraine, but have it be "Russia Jr."...so that Nato can butt up against it, but not actually touch Russian borders?  I figured he's just there to install a fake government that is under the Russian thumb.

[CF DolFan]

The thought I keep seeing is that he wants the return of the USSR. They think he will turn to Poland next.

[Dave Gray]

They think he will turn to Poland next.

I just don't see how that's possible.  It would trigger immediate war with most of the world.  I don't think that's a war he is able to wage.

[ArtieChokePhin]

The thought I keep seeing is that he wants the return of the USSR. They think he will turn to Poland next.

I just don't see how that's possible.  It would trigger immediate war with most of the world.  I don't think that's a war he is able to wage.

If China and North Korea back him, it might not matter.   Like Spider said, most of the key parts of the world will be a radioactive wasteland.

[Dave Gray]

I don't see China getting involved in a war for some other country.  It doesn't seem to be their style.  They're relatively isolationist in that way.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

My concern regarding China is if Putin successfully annexes Ukraine it could embolden them to take Tiawan.

[Spider-Dan]

My concern regarding China is if Putin successfully annexes Ukraine it could embolden them to take Tiawan.

Depends on the cost.  Even if Russia does "successfully" annex Ukraine, if it comes at the cost of economic devastation, that could be an extremely powerful deterrent to China or any other nation with similar expansionist goals.

[Dave Gray]

All my life, paying for the greatest military might in the world.  Protecting freedom, all that shit.  I'm not even for that kind of thing, but it's what we are.

What's it for, if not to protect a democratic sovereign nation from getting war crimes committed on them by a tyrant dictator who is lying and abusing power.  Is it because he's got nukes?  Is this what we do -- let crazy people do whatever the fuck they want because they might nuke us?  That's just a hostage situation.

I've seen us in so many murky conflicts where we didn't belong, farting around with no real discernable goal.

I wouldn't be mad if we declared war on Russia with 2 conditions.  We bring the pain, the sanctions and the drone strikes and blow up the Goddamn Kremlin until:
1) Russia leaves Ukraine in full.
2) Vladamir Putin is killed, captured, or voluntarily exiles.

Let his own people turn against him.  They don't want this war for that asshole.

Invite the rest of the world to join.

Obama fucked this up with Syria.  We just let these shitty assholes do whatever war crimes to democratic uprisings.  

[Spider-Dan]

Dave, you are talking about America as World Police.

This situation in Ukraine is shitty.  It would be dramatically worse by adding global thermonuclear war.

Is it because he's got nukes?  Is this what we do -- let crazy people do whatever the fuck they want because they might nuke us?

Correct: possessing nukes makes it extremely difficult and dangerous for other countries to take direct military action against you.  That's why it's so important that we stop new countries from developing nuclear capability!

There is a set of circumstances under which the United States should and would declare war on Russia.
Annexing part of Georgia is not it.
Annexing Crimea is not it.
Annexing the entirety of Ukraine is still not it.
Invading any NATO country is, in fact, the red line that may not be crossed.  It is literally why NATO exists.

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Poland all realized this, which is why they joined NATO.  Ukraine did not.  It is what it is.

[Downunder Dolphan]

Endgame for Ukraine is to stall until international pressure pushes Putin to the negotiation table.  Sadly, I don't see any way that Ukraine is getting Crimea back, and I'm not even sure that Russia will be forced to backtrack their declaration of independence for the regions in eastern Ukraine.

Putin has a couple of goals.  There are his fake stated goals of "de-Nazifying Ukraine" and "stopping NATO from reaching Russia's borders," but those fake goals are fake.  If Russia annexes Ukraine, they will suddenly have 4 more NATO states on their (new) border.

Then there are his other stated goals:
1) Ukraine and Russia are "one people," and Ukraine is not a "real country."  This is a straightforward argument for annexation of Ukraine.
2) Restoration of the pre-Soviet Russian Empire, which would involve annexing most of eastern Europe (including many countries that are part of NATO)

In the earlier round of negotiations Russia demanded Ukraine not to pursue joining NATO and the EU, recognize the independence of the regions east of Ukraine, along with Russia's claim to Crimea and in addition now the entire southern coastline of Ukraine and accompanying states. This would have the effect of maintaining more of a buffer zone between NATO forces and Moscow (as opposed to the Russian border per se), give them complete Naval access to the Black Sea in all weather, and effectively land lock Ukraine if they somehow manage to remain independent (and this fight has shown they would rather die than put up with Russian occupation).

I think it's been pretty obvious Putin wants to overthrow the Government and install a President more sympathetic to Russian motives (ie. a puppet like he has in Belarus) the moment forces began to mass at the northern border and prepared to move on Kyiv as well as the contested regions to the east of Ukraine. At the risk of making Zelenskyy a martyr, he won't stop until he is either dead or rotting away in the Gulag to send a message to his detractors.

[Downunder Dolphan]

Let his own people turn against him.  They don't want this war for that asshole. 

That won't happen unless all the Oligarchs and/or military turn on Putin to have him replaced. At the moment I just don't think the situation is bad enough for them.

Tens of thousands have been arrested in protests in Russia and sent to prisons without a blink of an eye. The youth who are clued in on what's going on (via independent news, internet and social media sources - which are being silenced as the war goes on) don't have the numbers or the power. Many who have been jailed, beaten and tortured over their opposition have fled to countries like Lithuania to survive. The older generation are brainwashed by the political media, and many long for the old Soviet era when they thought things were better. It's a complex, divided country, but all the real power lies with the incumbents under a fake pretense of democracy, which is in reality nothing more than a brutal dictatorship.

There are all sorts of wild rumors at the moment that Putin is spending all most all of his time in a bunker so he won't be assassinated. Meeting Presidents and his chief officials at the end of a forty foot long table doesn't exactly extinguish the talk that he is that paranoid... Zelenskyy has challenged to meet him for face to face for talks - I can't see that happening short of Zelenskyy's head being on the end of a stick.

[Downunder Dolphan]

Invading any NATO country is, in fact, the red line that may not be crossed.  It is literally why NATO exists.

The latest military strike at Yavoriv military facility to west near Lviv is just 25KM from the Polish border.

Russia has determined attacking the base where Western arms shipments are going as well as Foreign fighters is worth the risk of incidentally crossing that red line if they happen to miss.

If a stray missile/artillery does wind up in Polish territory, will NATO react?