Dolphins start the rebuild

[Downunder Dolphan]

Tua's contract is going to cripple any chance of the Dolphin's chances in 2026, the question is do you want the contract to also be harmful to 2027?

What do you accomplish by by moving some of the dead money into 2027 instead of 2026?

The Dolphins are already heavily crippled for 2026 because of all the other dead money in the cap, and still little to no space to show for it. Adding another $45M of dead money is suicidal.

Eating the full $99M of Tua's contract in 2026 will have to result in a fire sale of virtually anyone decent on our list just to stay under the cap limit.

A number of experts have now said cutting Tua pre-June 1 is virtually an impossibility because of how bad the Dolphins cap situation is already - the only way we can realistically do it is as a post June-1 cut and carry $33M of the poison into 2027. This isn't the same situation as Russell Wilson in Denver, it's far, far worse.  

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Be prepared to goodbye to Minkah, Jackson, Waddle, Brewer, Brooks, Ingold, Sieler,

Minkah, jackson, brewer, brooks , ingold  are all FA in 2027 so cutting or trading them for cap space would only really effect 2026.  And you could likely get decent picks for either the 2026 or 2027 draft. 

Cutting Sieler or Waddle would make the cap space situation worse so no point cutting or trading them.

[Pappy13]

Not just this season. As I mentioned earlier, if you cut Tua, you are going to have to cut even more players off the roster just to make the cap limit (and even more to have any space to sign rookies and anyone else).

Be prepared to goodbye to Minkah, Jackson, Waddle, Brewer, Brooks, Ingold, Sieler, basically anyone who isn't on a rookie or minimum wage contract the next two seasons.

This just isn't true in any way shape or form unless you are talking about taking the full $99M for Tua in 2026. That's not ripping off the bandaid that's hacking off all 4 limbs. There's no way that the Dolphins do that, it's basically impossible, not even realistic. As I said above, they basically already have made enough cuts to the roster to meet the salary cap for 2026 provided that Chubb is designated as a post June 1st cut and Tua is cut post June 1st, traded or kept on the roster. If they want to designate Chubb as a pre June 1st cut then they'll have to do a bit more cutting, but it's doable.

2026 is going to be a lean year no question about that, but to suggest they have to completely gut the roster and be looking at 0-17 is utter nonsense. Now they could go 0-17, but it would be largely with the same roster they had last year which would be a huge underperformance and basically if that happens the biggest mistake would have to be considered hiring Hafley as head coach if that happens.

[Pappy13]

A number of experts have now said cutting Tua pre-June 1 is virtually an impossibility because of how bad the Dolphins cap situation is already - the only way we can realistically do it is as a post June-1 cut and carry $33M of the poison into 2027. This isn't the same situation as Russell Wilson in Denver, it's far, far worse.  

Unless you can convince someone to pick up lets say $30M of his salary and you eat the rest. Maybe throw in a player or draft pick to complete the deal. That's a possibility. It requires a trade partner willing to do that but I don't think it's crazy to think that someone might be willing to pay Tua $30M for 1 year. Probably not, but you never know.

[Spider-Dan]

What do you accomplish by by moving some of the dead money into 2027 instead of 2026? Do that Dolphins have ability to  to construct a team for 2026 capable of making the playoffs?  No.  If they enter 2027 with no dead money and a roster of young players on rookie contracts in which a few of are players that in hindsight should have been day two draftees not UDFA then they have a chance at building a competitive team.

It's pretty hilarious to see a fan of a team that went from 4 wins to the Super Bowl talk about which teams are obviously unable to compete next year.

Your favorite team just lost the Super Bowl to Sam Darnold and you want to opine on which teams have unsalvageable QB dilemmas?  If the 2025 Patriots can make the Super Bowl, then any fucking team in the league can.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

It's pretty hilarious to see a fan of a team that went from 4 wins to the Super Bowl talk about which teams are obviously unable to compete next year.

Your favorite team just lost the Super Bowl to Sam Darnold and you want to opine on which teams have unsalvageable QB dilemmas?  If the 2025 Patriots can make the Super Bowl, then any fucking team in the league can.

The 2025 NEP had a huge number of FA signing made possible by a surplus of cap space. 

Could the Titans bounce back from a 3-14 season to winning a superbowl?  With very shrewd signings and some lucky breaks it is possible.  But teams like Dolphins and Browns don't have the cap space to organize such a bounce back even if every move they make they hit on.       

[Pappy13]

There's one more possibility for Tua that I hadn't thought of. Injured reserve. This is actually a really good idea if they can't trade him since he wouldn't be a distraction to the team that way, but you could still push his next year's salary to next year and keep alive the idea of a trade partner sometime later.

Omar Kelly floats IR idea for Tua.

[CF DolFan]

There's one more possibility for Tua that I hadn't thought of. Injured reserve. This is actually a really good idea if they can't trade him since he wouldn't be a distraction to the team that way, but you could still push his next year's salary to next year and keep alive the idea of a trade partner sometime later.

Omar Kelly floats IR idea for Tua.

He also pointed out that if he is on IR this year, he may be able to activate his injury clause for next year which would activate another year.

I've got to give props to Omar lately. They were discussing why they paid Tua when no other team was in the mix. Of course, the answer was a given as Tua would sit out all of the preseason. Omar pointed out that if the Dolphins had brought in competition like someone like Jimmy Garoppolo instead of Mike White and Skyler he would have played. It would have been a huge risk to let someone like him get his shot. As it is, the Dolphins have been afraid of QB competition for a long time.

[Spider-Dan]

I've already said this before, but this "Pay Tua less" strategy was always dumb.  If the Dolphins believed in Tua then they should have paid him (as they did), and if they didn't believe in him then they should have traded him at his peak value coming off leading the league in yardage (and the fanbase would have revolted).

If the team franchise tags him, it means they don't believe he will be good, and they're putting themselves in a position where they have to hope he doesn't play well, or they will have to commit an even larger contract to him.

If the team lowballs him (instead of tagging him) then not only do you risk him walking for nothing, but you don't gain anything meaningful; if MIA were paying Tua $42M/year instead of $52M/year, this entire offseason would have went exactly the same.

[Pappy13]

I've already said this before, but this "Pay Tua less" strategy was always dumb.  If the Dolphins believed in Tua then they should have paid him (as they did), and if they didn't believe in him then they should have traded him at his peak value coming off leading the league in yardage (and the fanbase would have revolted).

...or a third option, just make him stick to his original contract which almost no one other than Tua would have been upset about.

[Spider-Dan]

That is the same outcome as "franchise tag him": you put yourself in the position of hoping he plays poorly or the price goes up even more.

If you didn't believe in him then you should have traded him right after he made the Pro Bowl.

[Pappy13]

That is the same outcome as "franchise tag him": you put yourself in the position of hoping he plays poorly or the price goes up even more.

If he plays well you pay the man, he earned it. That's what the NFL did for decades.

[Spider-Dan]

Tua got paid after he led the league in passing yards and helmed the #1 offense while being voted the starter of the Pro Bowl. So "if he plays well you pay the man, he earned it" clearly doesn't apply; the argument now is that Tua should NOT have been paid.  (And it's not like Tua was paid early; he was paid a year later than Hurts, Herbert, and Burrow, three QBs from the same draft.  And all three of those players were given "highest-paid player in league history" contracts, while Tua was not despite signing a year later.)

So if that's the contention, then MIA should have just traded him: either you're hoping he plays poorly so you can sign him at a discount (but why would you?), or if he plays well again, now you've put yourself in even more financial trouble... or worst case, you're in the "Kirk Cousins in Washington" scenario, where you're franchise tagging him at top dollar just to watch him walk for nothing.

[Pappy13]

Tua got paid after he led the league in passing yards and helmed the #1 offense while being voted the starter of the Pro Bowl. So "if he plays well you pay the man, he earned it" clearly doesn't apply

He hadn't earned it yet as he hadn't yet fullfilled his current contract. Leading the league is what you hope for when you sign a player, that shouldn't mean we tear up your contract and give you a fat new one because you played as hoped. Are players going to rip up their contract if they don't play up to expectations? This is historically how things have worked in the NFL. It's a recent thing to start paying guys a year or 2 before their current contract ends and in many cases the team ends up regretting it. Of those other guys that were paid early only Hurts has really accomplished what was hoped when they paid him. In my opinion those guys are not good examples of this working out, they are good examples of it not working out. Burrow isn't happy in Cincy and if Herbert doesn't take them deep into the playoffs next year, he may be on his way out as well. Tua makes that 3 out of 4. 1 out of 4 is not what I would call best practice. Paying QB's as if they are the best in the league before they have really shown that to be true isn't working or at the very least isn't working any better than simply not doing that.

I'll fully admit that had Miami not paid him before the 2024 season he played well enough in 2024 that they would have paid him anyway before the 2025 season and still been in the same situation they are now. Don't confuse my opinion with one that if the Dolphins hadn't paid him in 2024 they wouldn't be in this mess, they still would be and yet I still think the best thing would have been to excercise the 5th year option and wait to pay Tua after he fulfilled his rookie contract as I think it sets a bad precedent to pay them before you have to. The only thing that would have probably prevented the current issue is if Miami did pick up his 5th year option and Tua had retired in 2024 after being injured, but I don't think that was ever really going to happen. That's just my opinion, no one is asking me for my opinion.

[Spider-Dan]

He hadn't earned it yet as he hadn't yet fullfilled his current contract. [...] This is historically how things have worked in the NFL.

You are arguing for the way you think things should work, not the way they do. (And I'm not citing the other 2020 QBs because they "worked out," but rather because that is what the market is.)

Of the four other "franchise" QBs in the 2020 draft, three of them signed extensions a year before Tua, and the fourth - who was a backup for his first 3 years! - signed his extension literally the same day as Tua. Tua already had to "prove it" more than his peers in the same draft class, and you're saying MIA should have made him wait ANOTHER year.

The Dolphins don't get to operate under a different set of rules than everyone else: either you pay your QB on the same timing as his peers, or you try to cheap out and risk paying them top dollar on franchise tags before watching them walk for nothing like Cousins in WSH.