Playoff thread

[Pappy13]

NYT runs 20k simulations, and you can add more (I went up to 100k simulations), and since the Pats won last night that number is around 84%.

Another website showing if we win our remaining games we are more likely to make the playoffs then miss them, it shows us at 79% if we we win out to make the playoffs:

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/dolphinswhatif.html

OK, I see the problem here. This is assuming that ALL scenario's are equal. Problem is that all scenario's are NOT equal. Obviously it's much MORE likely that teams with a winning record are going to win against teams with a losing record. Sure, technically 80% of ALL outcomes Miami makes the playoffs if they go 10-7, but MOST of those outcomes are HIGHLY unlikely where good teams lose to bad teams etc. That's doesn't mean that Miami has an 80% chance of making the playoffs that means that out of ALL the screnario's that could play out 80% of those result in Miami making the playoffs, but about half of those scenario's are so utterly UNLIKELY they are not worth consideration. If you assume that EVERY team has a 50/50 chance of winning any game then it would be accurate, but do you think there's a 50/50 chance of the Jets winning @ Buffalo in week 18? No there's more like a 1 in 5 chance of that happening. When you look at the most LIKELY to happen scenario's then Miami doesn't make the playoffs in most of THOSE scenario's. Sure they have 80% chance to make the playoffs if winning a game is based on a coin flip. Unfortunately for Miami games are NOT decided by a coin flip and some outcomes are decidely more likely to occur than others and the ones that are most likely to occur don't include Miami in the playoffs.

To further illustrate this then just assume that the HOME team wins every game the rest of the way out except for Miami who wins all of their games. In THAT scenario Miami makes the playoffs, but is that a good assumption? Hell no! Obviously it helps if you play at home, but it doesn't guarantee a win. When you go by record of all the games remaining except for Miami who wins all of their games then Miami doesn't make the playoffs. Which is more likely that all the HOME teams will win out or the all the teams with a better record will win out? I think that's pretty obvious. Those scenario's are NOT equally likely.

I'd estimate the chances that Miami makes the playoffs if they go 10-7 to be 50% if even that high when you actually try to predict outcomes of game based on the teams playing and where.

[Dolfanalyst]

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-analysis/2021/patriots-dominate-weighted-dvoa?utm_source=CCM&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=eNews_Tues

[fyo]

^ 5% chance to make the postseason. Yeah, that feels about right. Maybe even a tad optimistic.

[Spider-Dan]

The most likely outcome is that in two weeks, MIA's playoff chances will either be a lot higher, or they'll be zero.  So maybe just wait.

[Pappy13]

The most likely outcome is that in two weeks, MIA's playoff chances will either be a lot higher, or they'll be zero.  So maybe just wait.

Actually Miami's chances don't change much unless they win out and that may not even change much depending upon how the other teams around .500 do. If a couple of other teams fall out of contention then Miam's chances will go up significantly but if not they may still be pretty small even if Miami wins out. Most likely Miami will need help in week 18 even if they win out.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Steelers getting spanked by the Vikings right now. That helps us in the playoff race and ever so slightly helps us in the draft pick race cause maybe they leapfrog the Niners for the playoffs. NFC is so tragic so it's doubtful.

[Phishfan]

Steelers getting spanked by the Vikings right now. That helps us in the playoff race and ever so slightly helps us in the draft pick race cause maybe they leapfrog the Niners for the playoffs. NFC is so tragic so it's doubtful.

Epic 4th quarter

[stinkfish]

Epic 4th quarter

Yeah, I missed it. I'm the guy who saw that the game was theoretically over in the first half. Another one of those lousy Thursday night games. I'll do something else. Missed the whole damn thing.  Does this Pitt loss mean anything for Miami?

[Sunstroke]

Epic 4th quarter

Down by 29 and came back to make a game of it...yeah, definitely worth staying up for.

[ArtieChokePhin]

Yeah, I missed it. I'm the guy who saw that the game was theoretically over in the first half. Another one of those lousy Thursday night games. I'll do something else. Missed the whole damn thing.  Does this Pitt loss mean anything for Miami?

Thursday night football needs to go.   It messes up everyone's practice schedule.   They should only do opening night and Thanksgiving.

[Tenshot13]

I disagree, I love having football to watch on Thursday.

[EDGECRUSHER]

I disagree, I love having football to watch on Thursday.

The problem is that the games are usually trash, with one team being blown out. Seems to be the team dealing with injuries and or having to travel the most.

[Tenshot13]

The problem is that the games are usually trash, with one team being blown out. Seems to be the team dealing with injuries and or having to travel the most.

IDK that Ravens Dolphins game about a month ago was pretty awesome.  The game last night was pretty good as well.  Packers/Cardinals was good.  Rams/Seahawks.  Giants/WFT.  There have been a few good Thursday night games this season.

[dolphins4life]

What do we want this weekend in terms of results?

[EDGECRUSHER]

What do we want this weekend in terms of results?

Baltimore
Kansas City
Giants
Lions
Tampa Bay
Niners (feel dirty about that one)

It's time for the division leaders to pull away and beat up on the 6-6 and 7-5 teams.