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Author Topic: TikTok says the Niners didn't know the overtime rules  (Read 1124 times)
dolphins4life
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« on: February 13, 2024, 01:00:26 pm »

If that's the case, that's utterly ridiculous

It's also the culmination of the dumbest playoffs in the NFL history

- Todd Bowles giving up on the game instead of calling a timeout to give his team a chance

- The Lions' stupid clock management against the 49ers

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Dave Gray
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« Reply #1 on: February 13, 2024, 01:30:08 pm »

Did not knowing the OT rules come into play?

I mean...it's not like they made some dumb call that cost them, right?  It just showed that they were ill-prepared???  I don't really see how it affected anything.
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Spider-Dan
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« Reply #2 on: February 13, 2024, 01:56:18 pm »

https://defector.com/the-niners-should-have-thought-a-little-harder-about-the-overtime-rules

"It's safe to assume that more than just those two Niners players didn't get what had changed, or at least didn't factor the changes into the coin-toss decision. Head coach Kyle Shanahan did apparently have a reasoning that formulated his team's strategy, but the assumptions made in the forming of that plan were misguided. Essentially, the Niners were playing under the belief that both teams would score a touchdown (and an extra point) on their respective first drives, and so having the ball when the game turned to sudden death would be an advantage.

This is true, on paper. In practice, though, the strategy runs into two problems. The first is the assumption that both teams would score touchdowns. While the final score ended up being in the 20s, Super Bowl 58 belonged mostly to the defenses, which shut down the respective offenses for most of the game. Sure, both of the defenses were tired by overtime, but it wouldn't be unreasonable to think that the Chiefs defense could hold the Niners to just a field goal or, even worse, a punt. The latter almost happened—San Francisco was bailed out by a defensive holding call on third down early in its first and only overtime drive—but the former did. The Niners could have then held the Chiefs to a field goal of their own, and then the "getting the ball third" gambit that Shanahan and his team of coaches and analysts decided on would come into play.

However, as Jones reports, this plan also runs into a problem. The Chiefs came into the coin toss always knowing they would give the Niners the ball and then try to win on their own drive, no matter what. Lineman Chris Jones said as much: “We talked through this for two weeks. How we was going to give the ball to the opponent; if they scored, we was going for two at the end of the game. We rehearsed it.” If both teams had scored a touchdown, the Niners were never getting the ball back anyway because Kansas City would shrink the Super Bowl to one two-point conversion."


---

So it looks like the SF coaches were aware of the rules, but:
a) didn't communicate it to the players or specifically practice for it like KC did
b) chose a suboptimal strategy that allowed KC to play 4-down football and be in a position to keep SF from touching the ball again (as KC was planning to go for two if SF had scored a TD+PAT)

My understanding is that statistically, kick or receive are very close in expected winning percentages, but from a strategy standpoint, kick seems to be a lot better.  Being able to play 4-down football instead of 3-down football is huge, and if you score a TD on the second possession you have the option to end the game.
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Dave Gray
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« Reply #3 on: February 13, 2024, 02:30:33 pm »

I'm not sure how the statistical modeling works, but I think the fact that you can go for 2 to win the game lends you to wanting to kickoff and play D.  Then, you have to go for 2 because you can't give the ball back for sudden death.

However, Niners had been on the field defensively, so maybe they need a rest.
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Phishfan
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« Reply #4 on: February 13, 2024, 03:00:23 pm »

I've heard about resting the defense elsewhere but don't know if it is true.
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CF DolFan
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« Reply #5 on: February 13, 2024, 03:49:23 pm »

It doesn't matter because the "players" would have played the same regardless of knowing the rules. I'm guessing there are probably several rules they are unaware of. That's why people like BB can exploit loopholes in the rules.

I would have taken the ball too. If you went second and tied then the next team just needs to kick a FG anyway and you want to be in that position. Besides ... giving the defense a rest wasn't a bad idea either.

The second guessing in this game is crazy to me when the truth is they lost only because they didn't have Mahomes.
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Spider-Dan
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« Reply #6 on: February 13, 2024, 04:22:56 pm »

If you went second and tied then the next team just needs to kick a FG anyway and you want to be in that position.
That's not necessarily true, which is the point.

If you go second then (unless the first team successfully made a 2pt conversion) your can guarantee they never touch the ball again, win or lose.

KC said that even if SF had scored a TD, they would have ended the game (win or lose) with a 2pt conversion.
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CF DolFan
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« Reply #7 on: February 13, 2024, 05:38:36 pm »

That's not necessarily true, which is the point.

If you go second then (unless the first team successfully made a 2pt conversion) your can guarantee they never touch the ball again, win or lose.

KC said that even if SF had scored a TD, they would have ended the game (win or lose) with a 2pt conversion.
That's still a coach's call. the players wouldn't have played any different than they did regardless of knowing that. Besides ... I can't see most teams going for 2 without two recent Super bowl victories or if you're coached by Dan Campbell or Mike Vrabel ... hahaha.
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Dave Gray
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« Reply #8 on: February 13, 2024, 08:42:47 pm »

You have to go for 2 if you score the 2nd TD. 

Because if you don't, you're giving the other team the ball to beat you.  It becomes sudden death at that point and you're at a disadvantage because you don't have the ball.  The 2pt conversion is at or better than a 50/50.
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Denver2
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« Reply #9 on: February 14, 2024, 12:48:15 am »

You have to go for 2 if you score the 2nd TD. 

Because if you don't, you're giving the other team the ball to beat you.  It becomes sudden death at that point and you're at a disadvantage because you don't have the ball.  The 2pt conversion is at or better than a 50/50.

If the first OT period ends is it still next possession or a fresh coin toss?

I don’t think the calculations change much but I was just curious
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Pappy13
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« Reply #10 on: February 14, 2024, 12:07:05 pm »

So KC beat Buffalo in OT where Buffalo never touches the ball so the NFL changes the rules and KC beats SF by playing 4 down football. Does anyone think that maybe it doesn't matter what the OT rules are KC will find a way to win regardless if they get the ball first or not?
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Denver2
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« Reply #11 on: February 14, 2024, 02:46:03 pm »

So KC beat Buffalo in OT where Buffalo never touches the ball so the NFL changes the rules and KC beats SF by playing 4 down football. Does anyone think that maybe it doesn't matter what the OT rules are KC will find a way to win regardless if they get the ball first or not?

Ehh..I’ve flirted with ideas like these in past, that maybe there is some scripting to football. I thought about it with numerous patriots scandals and just hundreds of games coming down to a few questionable calls/decisions and sometimes seems designed for dramatic effect.

Logically I reject it as just too complicated but can’t say I havent been left shaking my head with calls/rules/coaching decisions etc
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Pappy13
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« Reply #12 on: February 14, 2024, 03:03:39 pm »

Ehh..I’ve flirted with ideas like these in past, that maybe there is some scripting to football. I thought about it with numerous patriots scandals and just hundreds of games coming down to a few questionable calls/decisions and sometimes seems designed for dramatic effect.

Logically I reject it as just too complicated but can’t say I havent been left shaking my head with calls/rules/coaching decisions etc
I wasn't suggesting anything nefarious. I was suggesting that maybe KC is just good at finding a way to win no matter what the rules are.
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Denver2
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« Reply #13 on: February 15, 2024, 10:23:23 am »

I wasn't suggesting anything nefarious. I was suggesting that maybe KC is just good at finding a way to win no matter what the rules are.

Oh I see.

Yeah that tends to happen with probably the best quarterback to play and a balanced team elsewhere with competent coaching. Dudes just too much of an X factor
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CF DolFan
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« Reply #14 on: February 15, 2024, 11:00:21 am »

So KC beat Buffalo in OT where Buffalo never touches the ball so the NFL changes the rules and KC beats SF by playing 4 down football. Does anyone think that maybe it doesn't matter what the OT rules are KC will find a way to win regardless if they get the ball first or not?
LOL ... I've said the only reason San Fran lost is that they don't have Patrick Mahomes. Jimmy Johnson called him the best QB he has ever seen ... and that was before this past year. PM is the difference maker.
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