Now is the time to sit Tua

[Pappy13]

This is crazy talk.  It is absolutely insane to bench a QB because he's making too much money.

You're not benching him because he's making too much money you are benching him because his play has fallen off a cliff and the playoffs are out of reach and it's time to give someone else a chance to step up. That's why he's being benched.

That's like saying if Tua restructures his contract, suddenly he's the starting QB again!

He would be in 2026 or at least he would be able to compete for the starting spot with whomever else is on the team and that might be exactly what happens. The Dolphins could persuade Tua to restructure his contract, not to lower his salary, but to push more of it into the future when they don't expect him to be on the team. That doesn't really help at the QB position but it would lower his cap hit for 2026 and allow the Dolphins to get better in other places other than the QB room. The only thing that would stop this from happening is Tua refusing to restructure his contract but then that might just mean he would be cut which really isn't an attractive alternative. I could easily see Tua being talked into restructuring his contract so that the Dolphins would have more cap space for 2026 to put better players around him and hopefully have better results than 2025. It's not crazy talk. A guy on the Patriots did it year after year because he was more concerned with the team having the money to put players around him than putting dollars in his own pocket despite the fact that he was playing at a very high level.

Any (aspiring to be) competitive team with a QB that is not on his rookie deal will have roughly the same amount of cap tied up in their QB as MIA does. Despite all the screaming from fans about FIFTY TWO MILLION DOLLARS, the problem is not his contract... it's his play.

No, it's both his play and his contract. If he was the best player on the team no would care about his contract. It's because his play has not lived up to his contract that he's a problem. If he lived up to his contract Miami could try to trade him. If he lived up to his contract Miami likely would have been more competitive this year. This is why his 52 million is a problem, because they aren't competitive with him, they can't trade him because no one wants that contract and they can't get better players to surround him because of his contract. It's ALL of that. If he plays up to the contract there's no issue with Tua. You keep preaching about how it's so important to take advantage of the fact that you have a starting QB on a rookie contract while at the same time saying that it's not a disadvantage when you don't. You can't have it both ways. Either it is an advantage to have a starting QB on rookie salary AND a detriment when you don't or neither is true. Choose. Don't tell me both things are true, they are mutually exclusive and the play of the QB determines how much of an advantage or detriment it is. The more you are paying the QB and the more he's failing to live up to that contract the bigger the disadvantage gets.

If he were playing exactly as he is now at half the price, the team would not be meaningfully better off.

Wrong. The QB position would not be better off, but it's likely the team would be better off. It's a team sport and every team is under salary cap restrictions. More money to your QB means less money for everyone else which impacts how you build the team. It's why the whole rookie QB contract is even a thing. You even acknowledge that is the case but refuse to acknowledge it as it pertains to Tua and the opposite end of the spectrum for some reason.

[Pappy13]

With Tua playing at this level:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

...the Dolphins would need one of the most stifling defenses in history to compete for a Super Bowl.  Assembling and maintinaing such a defense is obviously highly unlikely.

People talk about what a QB "needs around him" to win, and that's all well and good.  But you have to consider as well how likely it is to assemble and maintain such surroundings.

Ryan Tannehill had a couple good years in Tennessee when the stars aligned around him.  But if it's difficult to maintain the stars in such an alignment because of injuries, free agency, trades, retirements, coaching changes, etc., it speaks to the QB's inadequate ability.

The Chiefs won a Super Bowl in 2020 with a mediocre defense.  That's because, in sharp contrast with Tua this year, this is where Patrick Mahomes and the pass offense were functioning:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/season/2020/seasontype/2

The Dolphins won 4 of 6 games with Tua playing at a below average level. He just needs to be average for the team to be competitive, but lately he's not even been that. Granted that not even that would be good enough for playoff success, but with an improved team around him as well? The reason the Dolphins lost 6 of 7 in the first 7 weeks was because the defense was playing so poorly and giving up 30+ points a game. That has changed and they've done a much better job in the last 6 games. Tua however has gotten worse since then.

Code:

Date/Opp/Result              cmp   att  yds   cmp%  y/att  TD INT QBR 
10/30 vs BAL L 28-6          25	40  261	62.5   6.5   0   1    28
11/9 vs BUF W 30-13         15	21  173	71.4   8.2   2   2    38
11/16 vs WSH W 16-13 OT 14	20  171	70.0   8.6   0   0    31
11/30 vs NO W 21-17        12	23  157	52.2   6.8   0   1    34
12/7 @ NYJ W 34-10         13	21  127	61.9   6.0   1   0    24
12/15 @ PIT L 28-15         22	28  253	78.6   9.0   2   1    29

[Dave Gray]

This is crazy talk.  It is absolutely insane to bench a QB because he's making too much money.

I mean, is it?

I think that in a new season, you start your best player, especially the one making the money.

But to end a season that you've lost, I can see how you'd bench Tua because you realize he makes too much money and you'd like to maximize your chance to move him off the team.  That's what I think it likely happening here.

I think that Tua is not the worst starter in the league and there are many teams that would benefit from having him on their roster as a starter or an interim to their future guy.  But not at max money.  That's the rub.  So if someone else wants him and we can eat some of that money, but not all of it by keeping him, maybe that's the sweet spot.

[Dolfanalyst]

The Dolphins won 4 of 6 games with Tua playing at a below average level. He just needs to be average for the team to be competitive, but lately he's not even been that. Granted that not even that would be good enough for playoff success, but with an improved team around him as well? The reason the Dolphins lost 6 of 7 in the first 7 weeks was because the defense was playing so poorly and giving up 30+ points a game. That has changed and they've done a much better job in the last 6 games. Tua however has gotten worse since then.

Code:

Date/Opp/Result              cmp   att  yds   cmp%  y/att  TD INT QBR 
10/30 vs BAL L 28-6          25	40  261	62.5   6.5   0   1    28
11/9 vs BUF W 30-13         15	21  173	71.4   8.2   2   2    38
11/16 vs WSH W 16-13 OT 14	20  171	70.0   8.6   0   0    31
11/30 vs NO W 21-17        12	23  157	52.2   6.8   0   1    34
12/7 @ NYJ W 34-10         13	21  127	61.9   6.0   1   0    24
12/15 @ PIT L 28-15         22	28  253	78.6   9.0   2   1    29

If he were playing at an average level the team would need one of the best pass defenses in the league to compete for a championship.  That again is a tall order, because it's comprised of a critical mass of defensive players that isn't easy to assemble or maintain.

Winning at a high level in today's NFL is based primarily on pass offense and pass defense.  Obviously pass offense hinges to a large degree on the quality of the QB.  Pass defense on the other hand requires multiple defensive players, most notably edge rushers and corners.  This is why the players that comprise these parts of teams are paid the most -- QBs, LTs (the primary pass protectors), WRs, DEs, and CBs.

If your QB is mediocre you need a stellar pass defense.  If your QB is stellar on the other hand, you can win big with a mediocre pass defense -- i.e., the 2020 Chiefs.

Essentially it's all about the QB and the pass offense -- the one you have, and how well you defend against the opposing one.

[Spider-Dan]

You're not benching him because he's making too much money you are benching him because his play has fallen off a cliff and the playoffs are out of reach and it's time to give someone else a chance to step up. That's why he's being benched.

You just said:

If he was making 25 million for the next 2 years you wouldn't *need* to replace him.

This is absolutely not true.  At the level of play he has shown since the BAL game, it would not matter how much money he is making.  You would definitely need to replace him.

If he lived up to his contract Miami likely would have been more competitive this year. This is why his 52 million is a problem, because they aren't competitive with him, they can't trade him because no one wants that contract and they can't get better players to surround him because of his contract. It's ALL of that. If he plays up to the contract there's no issue with Tua.

Again, this is a problem with his play, not his pay.  If his pay were cut down to that of, say, Justin Fields (2yr/$40M total), the team would not be appreciably better off.

You keep preaching about how it's so important to take advantage of the fact that you have a starting QB on a rookie contract while at the same time saying that it's not a disadvantage when you don't. You can't have it both ways. Either it is an advantage to have a starting QB on rookie salary AND a detriment when you don't or neither is true.

First of all, there's a huge gap between a "rookie contract" and an "affordable veteran contract."  Would it make a big difference if Tua was making ~$6M/yr like Michael Penix or ~$8M/yr like Anthony Richardson instead of $52M?  Sure.  But there's no chance you're re-signing a QB you drafted to a contract that small.  Any QB would rather leave than stay and take a deal that low.

And even when Tua WAS still on his rookie contract, it's not like Miami had a major advantage in talent; Hill and Chubb are still on the team, Ramsey was traded for Minkah.  Maybe you could have afforded to keep Robert Hunt, but I don't think Miami was in a position to give a $100M contract to a guard, regardless of what the QB is making.

[Pappy13]

This is absolutely not true.  At the level of play he has shown since the BAL game, it would not matter how much money he is making.  You would definitely need to replace him.

No, you would *want* to replace him, but you wouldn't *need* to replace him. If you could find someone better you'd do it, but if not you could live with him for another year. Find someone to replace Hill next year so that he has another target, maybe draft a RT to protect his blindside and maybe he doesn't look quite as bad. It wouldn't be ideal, but it wouldn't be absolutely necessary either.

First of all, there's a huge gap between a "rookie contract" and an "affordable veteran contract."  

There's an even bigger gap between 25 million a year and 50 million a year. We are on the opposite end of the spectrum to having a QB on a rookie contract. If we were just in the middle things would be different.

And even when Tua WAS still on his rookie contract, it's not like Miami had a major advantage in talent; Hill and Chubb are still on the team, Ramsey was traded for Minkah. Maybe you could have afforded to keep Robert Hunt, but I don't think Miami was in a position to give a $100M contract to a guard, regardless of what the QB is making.

Maybe we could keep Minkah after this year? Maybe Hill? Maybe Chubb? Maybe make some deals to move up in the draft? With Tua's contract situation we are probably going to lose all of those guys. Not that you really want to keep all those guys or they help that much but If Tua's contract was different at least you would have options, now you have none.

Well that's not entirely true, you have 1 option left. Play your rookie 7th round QB and pray he looks good enough to cut Tua and just eat the dead cap money. Even if Ewers isn't all that good you managed to win a few games with what you had at QB this year, maybe McDaniel can work some magic with Ewers again next year. It's not like the kid doesn't have skills he was once a top prospect and he has played in some big college games and done alright. Not his best year, but not as bad as your typical 7th round QB either. Maybe he'll be better than we think. If you are looking for a cheap replacement for Tua while you recover from your cap nightmare, it doesn't get any cheaper than Quinn Ewers. It might be McDaniels last chance to keep his job so I'm rooting for Ewers, but I'm not holding my breath either.

[Spider-Dan]

No, you would *want* to replace him, but you wouldn't *need* to replace him. If you could find someone better you'd do it, but if not you could live with him for another year.

You CAN "live with him for another year" at $52M!
If you're going to classify "want" vs. "need" in this way, it's all wants.

There's an even bigger gap between 25 million a year and 50 million a year. We are on the opposite end of the spectrum to having a QB on a rookie contract. If we were just in the middle things would be different.

That difference is insufficient.  Saving $20-25M/year is not enough; you would need to be saving closer to $50M (i.e. Tua re-signing at rookie scale in 2024) to make a real impact.

Maybe we could keep Minkah after this year? Maybe Hill? Maybe Chubb? Maybe make some deals to move up in the draft?

I don't see how a smaller contract for Tua would help the team move up in the draft.
The other three options you listed - all of which are still possible with Tua at his current salary, because they have to be (otherwise you'd have to dump these players even if Tua was playing at an MVP level) - are all "Keep this team together" options, which do not make the team any better if Tua is playing at the same level but for less money.

[Pappy13]

You CAN "live with him for another year" at $52M!

They may have to. It would be a LOT easier to get rid of him before the 2026 season if his dead money was half what it is. We're not even having this debate if that's the case so don't pretend that his contract doesn't matter.

[Pappy13]

Can the Dolphins afford to not have him on the team next year?

I initially thought no, but the more I hear about Miami's salary cap situation the more I realize that while the 2026 cap would be a big problem, Miami is actually in pretty good cap shape for 2027. Miami can actually cut Tua and Hill and defer part of the money for both to 2027 and still be well under the cap for 2027, like 100 Million under the cap. 2026 is really the only year that it's a problem, but with some work it's definitely feasible to do that. So I have changed my thinking about Tua coming back next year and I just can't see it happening now. I don't think they really have much of a choice, they are going to have to cut Tua and eat the dead money and just let 2026 be the start of a rebuild. It's doable and honestly the only course of action now in my opinion. There's really no upside that I can think of to keep Tua on the roster next year. I thought it was nearly impossible to cut him, but it's really not, in fact by 2027 the Dolphins would be in good shape salary cap wise if they do that. The rebuild just started. I think the only question left is whether McDaniel will be around in 2026.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

That difference is insufficient.  Saving $20-25M/year is not enough; you would need to be saving closer to $50M (i.e. Tua re-signing at rookie scale in 2024) to make a real impact.

Zach Wilson and 45 million dollar upgrade to the defense would be a better team than Tua and the current team. 

[Downunder Dolphan]

I initially thought no, but the more I hear about Miami's salary cap situation the more I realize that while the 2026 cap would be a big problem, Miami is actually in pretty good cap shape for 2027. Miami can actually cut Tua and Hill and defer part of the money for both to 2027 and still be well under the cap for 2027, like 100 Million under the cap. 2026 is really the only year that it's a problem, but with some work it's definitely feasible to do that. So I have changed my thinking about Tua coming back next year and I just can't see it happening now. I don't think they really have much of a choice, they are going to have to cut Tua and eat the dead money and just let 2026 be the start of a rebuild. It's doable and honestly the only course of action now in my opinion. There's really no upside that I can think of to keep Tua on the roster next year. I thought it was nearly impossible to cut him, but it's really not, in fact by 2027 the Dolphins would be in good shape salary cap wise if they do that. The rebuild just started. I think the only question left is whether McDaniel will be around in 2026.

I think cutting Tua for 2026 would be an absolute nightmare scenario - cutting him in 2027 will always be the better option. Nearly $100M in dead money will basically torpedo the 2026 season before it's even started, as there's even less money to try and sign any kind of talent to fill in the (yet even greater) gaps we will have.

Do you think any prospective coach would want to walk into that scenario? Do you think McDaniel would want to stick around for this? Is it any coincidence that Fangio bolted to the Eagles when half his starting defense disappeared and there was no money to fix it?

Any real rebuild will start in 2027 when a good part of the account books are cleared (including Tua's guarantees), and a potential new Coach/GM combo has a proper cap to attempt it. Or to put it another way - having a huge amount of cap space in 2027 will be an attraction for any good prospects, but being in a cap-hell situation shifting things now will be the polar opposite.

Hill should be gone for 2026 which will help, but apart from a few lesser pieces, I think that's all we should realistically expect. Tua's cap hit is too large, and it's in everyone's best interest that he uses the rest of this season and the offseason to get himself physically and mentally fit for next season, with the proviso that he is specifically told that if he gets fat and slack partying too much during the offseason again (and doesn't at the very least regain his 2022-2023 form) he will stay on the bench, and it's likely to be the end of his career.

Even having him shine the bench with his ass for all of 2026 is about a $45 million better cap option than outright cutting him. As Hoodie has said, that's a lot of money to address some of our many other issues.

[Spider-Dan]

Zach Wilson and 45 million dollar upgrade to the defense would be a better team than Tua and the current team.

Saving $20-25M/year is not enough; you would need to be saving closer to $50M

$45M sounds a lot like "closer to $50M."

[Downunder Dolphan]

Tua's cap hit is too large, and it's in everyone's best interest that he uses the rest of this season and the offseason to get himself physically and mentally fit for next season, with the proviso that he is specifically told that if he gets fat and slack partying too much during the offseason again (and doesn't at the very least regain his 2022-2023 form) he will stay on the bench, and it's likely to be the end of his career.

Even having him shine the bench with his ass for all of 2026 is about a $45 million better cap option than outright cutting him. As Hoodie has said, that's a lot of money to address some of our many other issues.

This message should to go to Tua right now, even if he disappears off the sidelines the next two games:

Tubby Tua is over. If you want an NFL career after your current contract, you gotta stop laughing and get in proper shape. Mentally as well as physically.

Not by relying on doses of Ozempic as Tyreek claimed before last season. No Dad-bod beer gut on a boat like the last preseason. Start working your ass off right now, and don't stop.

It's either that, or prepare to spend all of 2026 holding a clipboard and shining your ass on a bench, and after that, to be out of the NFL forever. I hope you have a good financial planner, and not waste your millions like Tyreek on parties, plus size models, alimony and divorce lawyers.