great article on the AL East

[raptorsfan29]

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article_perspectives.jsp?ymd=20060131&content_id=1304062&vkey=perspectives&fext=.jsp

AL East: Jays ready to rule roost
Major roster upgrades could land Toronto atop division 
 Baseball Perspectives
 
 Tom Singer

 
 

Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi is the architect of what could be a shakeup in the AL East. (Ben Platt/MLB.com)

A one-year "shakeup" was enough for baseball's most static division, which in 2005 retreated to its 1998-2003 order of finish, New York-to-Tampa Bay (although this time only a tiebreaker over the Red Sox defended the Yanks' title). But the Bombers and Boston will have a tougher go maintaining order at the top; they may even feel like Tippi Hedren in Hitchcock's "The Birds," in this case "they" being the Blue Jays.
And isn't "static" a relative term? The Big Two have spent another winter oiling the revolving door, between them 18 newcomers spinning in and 24 old hands spinning out. Big difference this time: Toronto joined the frenzy, and none of its moves fell in the change-for-change's-sake category.

The Yankees' "Maulers Row" lineup gets even more lethal with Johnny Damon and a full season of Robinson Cano. But if pitching still decides fates, the Jays can pull a palace coup. New York hasn't upgraded an aging rotation that lost 15 times while that lineup was scoring five-plus.

Meanwhile, the Jays team two guys with the lowest starters ERA in the division last year (Josh Towers and Gustavo Chacin) with Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett. So how far can a tough rotation and a low-profile but creative lineup go? Let's ask the Chicago White Sox.

The Orioles remain Birds of a different feather. The Devil Rays have enough talent to again be very popular with other teams still hoping to leave Spring Training reinforced.



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The favorite

Blue Jays 
And speaking of static, this appraisal should generate plenty. This is how we see things stacking up before the first pickoff drill or blister, all subject to Spring Training developments. But, really, general manager J.P. Ricciardi's offseason could have served as a pilot for "The Swan II." He nailed down the corners of the infield (Troy Glaus, Lyle Overbay), got another rotation stud to watch Halladay's back (Burnett) and added a top-notch closer (B.J. Ryan). If we're talking paper, this is a team to beat. Image, it's all the other two guys. Field? Ah, we shall see.

Projected regular-season finish: AL East champions

Biggest Spring Training challenge: Settle in that new infield, overhauled around sophomore shortstop Russ Adams. Come out of camp feeling it. Otherwise, could again get buried in April.

Best position battles: Shea Hillenbrand is set up as the everyday DH, but Eric Hinske will give him a run. Reed Johnson and Frank Catalanotto could again share left field, but both have a shot at making it their own.

Wild card: If Burnett and Ryan -- the first pitchers given five-year contracts in four years (Kevin Millwood later joined them) -- justify their skeptics, it'll all come crashing down.

More: Spring Training preview | Quick hits | Spring schedule and tickets



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The challengers

Yankees 
GM Brian Cashman had an uncharacteristically subdued offseason, with only one big move (Johnny Damon) and a bunch of peripheral ones. It's almost as if he feels he's got a do-over coming for the bland seasons of pitchers Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright, the previous winter's big signings. So, right now, it shapes up as either a mulligan or a mugging.

Projected regular-season finish: Second place

Biggest Spring Training challenge: A new pitching coach (Ron Guidry) and seven bona fide rotation candidates to keep busy and happy.

Best position battles: Those aforementioned seven starters -- including Shawn Chacon and Aaron Small, who did it big-time last year -- and Pavano and Wright, who've done it in the past. This surplus will trickle down into the dense bullpen.

Wild card: If Randy Johnson goes back to treating hitters the way New York treated his first season in pinstripes, the Yanks could be untouchable every fifth day; they could make up the other four days as they go along, and again have it all lead into October.

More: Spring Training preview | Quick hits | Spring schedule and tickets

Red Sox 
A winter of hyperventilating over Theo Epstein had many people rolling their eyes, as the Boy Wonder became the Boy Wander. All things considered, it might've been better if Damon had instead changed his mind. The roster purge saved the heart of the offense (David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez), but not the heart of that wonderful clubhouse atmosphere (Damon, Kevin Millar, Bill Mueller).

Projected regular-season finish: Third place

Biggest Spring Training challenge: A shortstop would be nice, and slick gloveman Alex Gonzalez will reportedly soon be in the fold. Seeing flashes of Keith Foulke's old self might be even nicer.

Best position battles: There'll be a scrum for spots in the middle of the bullpen, with David Riske, Julian Tavarez, Rudy Seanez all brought in for the battle. Incumbent Tony Graffanino and import Mark Loretta will have at it at second. Kevin Youkilis was to get his shot at third, but then Mike Lowell arrived, pushing Youkilis to first, where he will split time with J.T. Snow.

Wild card: If Curt Schilling comes back from his 2005 bye, if Manny stops being Manny (except in the batter's box), if the Idiots turn out to have been replaceable, if ... that's not a wild card, that's a whole deck. But unlikely isn't impossible.

More: Spring Training preview | Quick hits | Spring schedule and tickets



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The long shot

Orioles 
Miguel Tejada is still around, and Sammy Sosa and Rafael Palmeiro aren't. So what's that about a fruitless winter? Made a series of moves for vets -- Jeff Conine, Kevin Millar, Ramon Hernandez -- typical of almost-there teams looking for that extra nudge over the top, the problem being the Orioles aren't close to it.

Projected regular-season finish: Fourth place

Biggest Spring Training challenge: Getting good vibes from their first Camp Leo (Mazzone, the new Midas Touch pitching coach). Seeing reassuring progress from second baseman Brian Roberts, whose breakthrough season ended with a gory dislocated left elbow.

Best position battles: Displaced catcher Javy Lopez, Millar and Conine all have to make a case for the majority of playing time at first base. LaTroy Hawkins is hardly a lock, so there'll be a free-for-all for the closer's spot vacated by Ryan.

Wild card: With Kris Benson as its new lead, the rotation really does have the potential of being reminiscent of the 1970s Orioles' meal ticket; if it clicks, the Birds could kick ... well, you know.

More: Spring Training preview | Quick hits | Spring schedule and tickets



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Maybe next year

Devil Rays 
The Devil Rays will never make a postseason. Guaranteed. But that's because the new ownership plans to revise the team's nickname for 2007, when this winter's forward-thinking moves -- such as blue-chip pitchers Edwin Jackson and Chuck Tiffany, acquired from the Dodgers for Danys Baez -- will begin showing up in the standings. But who can be the new closer? That's a (Shinji) Mori, the Japanese All-Star reliever from the Seibu Lions.

Projected regular-season finish: Last place

Biggest Spring Training challenge: Teams will be coming after the veteran cream (Julio Lugo, Aubrey Huff), which will be disruptive but also offer more opportunities to build the future base. Give new manager Joe Maddon's infectious optimism a chance.

Best position battles: Sean Burroughs doesn't have much rope at third, so Ty Wigginton could trip him up. The final two spots in the rotation are up for grabs, behind Scott Kazmir, Mark Hendrickson and Casey Fossum. Chad Orvella could usurp Mori.

Wild card: Carl Crawford is already here, and if Rocco Baldelli returns from his injuries and prized jewels B.J. Upton and Delmon Young join the party, they could generate a lot of momentum toward that near-future.

You read it here first ...

1) Manny Ramirez, his trade requests having fallen on deaf ears, will lock himself in a Rogers Centre toilet on April 23 following the finale of a Boston series against the Blue Jays, and seek political asylum in Canada.

2) With his average in the low .200s at the end of May, Samson Damon will get the go-ahead to let it grow, and other Yankees will be allowed to follow hirsute. The Bombers will adopt a new slogan: Going, growing, long.

3) Last season -- before they had Glaus or Overbay or Ryan -- the Blue Jays lost 44 games by one or two runs and blew 21 saves.

[EDGECRUSHER]

He absolutely DESTROYED his infield defense with the trade for Troy "Maybe I'll Stay Healthy" Glaus. They overspent on a pitcher with a career losing record and another injury history.

I figured Carl Pavano would've scared off GM's from giving big contracts to Marlins pitchers with losing records. They paid huge money for a closer who really hasn't pitched a menaingful game in his life.

Did I mention that I personally watched Oralando Hudson take away roughly 40 hits from hitters because of his defense and now he's gone?

For all the flaws NY and Boston have, they are still the top dogs.

[raptorsfan29]

Hill showed signs of great defense last season, since he will be taking over for hudson i don't see our defense getting weaker. maybe at 3B but thats about it.

Once again  no respect for my jays.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Hill showed signs of great defense last season, since he will be taking over for hudson i don't see our defense getting weaker. maybe at 3B but thats about it.

Once again  no respect for my jays.

The Jays are just getting overhyped. On paper, they can win 90 games, but that's if everyone stays healthy and plays to their potential. That's becoming more and more rare in baseball. Who was Boston's closer last year? Curt Schilling. Who was the Yankees ace? Aaron Small. Who once had a 12 game lead in the AL East? Orioles.

I just don't see every single thing working out for Toronto and that's what they're gonna need to win the East or get the Wild card.

[SCFinFan]

So let me get this straight...any moron that says "Toronto will win the AL East" that writes and article - that article is good?

I'll give you this - it was good for a laugh.


Do yourself a favor - learn a little about the game on your own and not this garbage being written by Blue Jay beat writers. End of the season you'll be looking up at Boston and New York again.

Damn, Maine. That goes beyond givin' the Jays no respect. That's downright nasty. From what I remember, the Jays last year were known for their defense. They've gotten rid of some of that defense and jacked up their power. I'd say that's a decent trade. Your defense can hold a team for a while, but you gotta put men on base.

The biggest question, for me, is not if everyone stays healthy, or if everything "goes right". It's whether or not the clubhouse atmosphere is one which can sustain a team: keep their spirits up and their nerves down. With the situation in Toronto right now, I could see that possibly happening. Not a whole lot of pressure, people excited... you never know.

As a Yankees fan, ever since about 1996 I've not really taken the Blue Jays into account. This year, I'm going to. And you should, too.

[MaineDolFan]

The Jays starting 1B was Shea Hillenbran and now it's Overbay.  Third base was Shea / Koskie and now it's Troy Glaus.  2B was Orlando Hudson and now it's a combo of Hill or whichever other of the four short stops they have on the roster.

Toronto's defese will look 100% different from last year, as they've had almost a 100% turnover in the infield.

What, exactly, am I supposed to respect when it comes to Overbay or Glaus's defense?

[SCFinFan]

Well, perhaps I should've critiqued the tone of your post rather than the information included. Glaus' numbers aren't sterling, defensively, from the hot corner. But I still say it's a good deal overall. His run production is far surperior to the tandem put on third last year by the Jays. That factors in.

I could probably say the same thing about overbay, but I'm not as up-to-date on his numbers as I am on Glaus. Frankly, I think the Jays can really contend this year. They may suffer some dfensive gaffes, unlike last year, but what's really going to help them is the O. DO you remember the ALDS last year, where the Red Sox had three men on, I beleive with no outs, and were put down by Hernandez? That's where the O comes in and where the defense takes a step back. Do you remember Ortiz's crucial home runs against the Yankees bullpen in 04? Defense didn't do much there but keep it close. Thats why I think they can contend. O has got to be there.

Defense will come. But it doesn't have to be shut-down caliber in baseball to get you to the top.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Well, perhaps I should've critiqued the tone of your post rather than the information included. Glaus' numbers aren't sterling, defensively, from the hot corner. But I still say it's a good deal overall. His run production is far surperior to the tandem put on third last year by the Jays. That factors in.

I could probably say the same thing about overbay, but I'm not as up-to-date on his numbers as I am on Glaus. Frankly, I think the Jays can really contend this year. They may suffer some dfensive gaffes, unlike last year, but what's really going to help them is the O. DO you remember the ALDS last year, where the Red Sox had three men on, I beleive with no outs, and were put down by Hernandez? That's where the O comes in and where the defense takes a step back. Do you remember Ortiz's crucial home runs against the Yankees bullpen in 04? Defense didn't do much there but keep it close. Thats why I think they can contend. O has got to be there.

Defense will come. But it doesn't have to be shut-down caliber in baseball to get you to the top.

I've learned in recent years that defense can be just as important as hitting. If you  make a great play and take away a double, it's the equivalent of you hitting a double yourself. The Jays have some groundball pitchers and with the revamped defense, they can suffer.

If David Ortiz had to play 162 games in the field, his offensive runs scored would be less than the runs he allowed, and you know how effin good that guy is with the stick.

Similar to Jason Giambi, but he can't hit when he is a DH so the Yankees and A's just pray.