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Author Topic: Rebuilding question/Climate Change  (Read 6337 times)
EDGECRUSHER
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« Reply #15 on: September 10, 2019, 08:46:03 am »

How many top QBs in the league today were #1 overall (as opposed to first rounders)?

Even if you exclude Brady, Brees, and Russell Wilson, there are a LOT of good QBs like Big Ben, Rivers, Rodgers, Wentz, Watson, Mahomes that were not picked #1.

Yeah, but we haven't found any of them. A lot of times when a QB goes #1, he is not the best player in the draft. Sometimes even far from it, it's just a position of need for a bad team. It also buys the GM and coaching staff some job security because everyone expects some growing pains.

If he stays his current course, Tua would be the best or one of the best players in the draft.
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CF DolFan
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« Reply #16 on: September 10, 2019, 01:11:40 pm »

They were just saying on the radio that top five QB picks pan out 50% of the time and the number one pick is at about 54%. Sure you can find them at other places in the draft but the odds are much less of it happening.
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MyGodWearsAHoodie
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« Reply #17 on: September 10, 2019, 02:54:05 pm »

As it is now obvious that OP never intended to discuss the Dolphins but rather climate change, this thread is being moved to off topic.

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Dolphster
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« Reply #18 on: September 10, 2019, 03:53:05 pm »

Dude is the greatest troll in the history of sports forums.  His playing all of us is going to be much more entertaining than Dolphins football this year. 
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Spider-Dan
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« Reply #19 on: September 10, 2019, 05:02:39 pm »

Yeah, but we haven't found any of them. A lot of times when a QB goes #1, he is not the best player in the draft.
So how many times has the first QB picked (so not necessarily #1) not been the best QB in that draft?

Ben is better than Eli, Rodgers is better than Smith, Wilson is better than Luck (especially now), Mahomes and Watson both look better than Trubisky, jury is still out on Goff and Wentz.

My point is that the magical "#1 pick" is not as special as it may seem. 
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CF DolFan
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« Reply #20 on: September 10, 2019, 05:07:24 pm »

So how many times has the first QB picked (so not necessarily #1) not been the best QB in that draft?

Ben is better than Eli, Rodgers is better than Smith, Wilson is better than Luck (especially now), Mahomes and Watson both look better than Trubisky, jury is still out on Goff and Wentz.

My point is that the magical "#1 pick" is not as special as it may seem. 
But we've effed everything else up so trying the best odds for once. It's pretty much the one thing we haven't failed at in trying to get a QB.
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BuccaneerBrad
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« Reply #21 on: September 10, 2019, 06:01:24 pm »

They say by 2050 Florida will be completely under water.   We'll all be old and ready to die by then.
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dolphins4life
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« Reply #22 on: September 10, 2019, 08:49:53 pm »

They say by 2050 Florida will be completely under water.   We'll all be old and ready to die by then.

Ok, that answers the question.  So the Dolphins do have time to become Super Bowl contenders.  

The next question, then we should all stop having children, right?

When I am on a dating site, and a woman tells me she wants to have children, is it accurate to say that that is not a good idea because the planet won't be inhabitable for them?

It also affects financial planning.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2019, 08:57:47 pm by dolphins4life » Logged

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stinkfish
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« Reply #23 on: September 11, 2019, 01:44:25 am »

They say by 2050 Florida will be completely under water.   We'll all be old and ready to die by then.
You Floridians should really consider moving to higher ground.
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Dolphster
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« Reply #24 on: September 11, 2019, 08:01:35 am »

So how many times has the first QB picked (so not necessarily #1) not been the best QB in that draft?

Ben is better than Eli, Rodgers is better than Smith, Wilson is better than Luck (especially now), Mahomes and Watson both look better than Trubisky, jury is still out on Goff and Wentz.

My point is that the magical "#1 pick" is not as special as it may seem. 

Excellent point.  There have been QB first overall picks who were complete failures also.  So even having the first overall pick is still hit and miss with QBs. 
JeMarcus Russel
David Carr
Tim Couch
Jeff George (probably not a complete bust, but certainly not much of a career considering his 1st overall pick status)
Jameis Winston (soon to be formally labeled a bust)
And if you want to turn back the clock to pre 1970, there are even more, but for the sake of relevancy to today's game, I won't list them. 

Interesting side fact that I stumbled across while looking this up.  Supposedly, back in 1998, the Colts wanted to take Ryan Leaf with the first pick.  Leaf didn't want to go to the Colts and wanted to live in San Diego (the Chargers had the 2nd overall pick).  According to Lee Steinberg, Leaf didn't show up for his meeting with Jim Mora (Colts) at the combine which pissed off the Colts to the point that they gave up on Leaf and "settled" for the second QB on their board.  That would be Peyton Manning. 
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EDGECRUSHER
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« Reply #25 on: September 11, 2019, 10:58:52 am »

So how many times has the first QB picked (so not necessarily #1) not been the best QB in that draft?

Ben is better than Eli, Rodgers is better than Smith, Wilson is better than Luck (especially now), Mahomes and Watson both look better than Trubisky, jury is still out on Goff and Wentz.

My point is that the magical "#1 pick" is not as special as it may seem. 

Those are usually in years where the QB picked #1 wouldn't even be a Top 10 pick if teams weren't desperate for a QB. My point is that in 2020, Tua and the other guy whose name escapes me will be amongst the bets player sin the draft if not the best overall. So, that #1 pick is a lot safer than Trubisky or the 1st rounders that all the NY teams spent on obvious QB busts, Buffalo included.
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fyo
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« Reply #26 on: September 19, 2019, 09:59:33 am »

Ok, that answers the question.  So the Dolphins do have time to become Super Bowl contenders.  

The next question, then we should all stop having children, right?

When I am on a dating site, and a woman tells me she wants to have children, is it accurate to say that that is not a good idea because the planet won't be inhabitable for them?

It also affects financial planning.

I have a really hard time believing the sincerity of your questions, but, no, Florida won't be entirely under water by 2050. The most extreme (pessimistic) models do have a very large portion of the state under water by 2100, though, but the assumption that the world would just continue to do nothing in the face of constant sea-level rise threatening every major coastal city is preposterous.

An increase of sea-level by 5 feet by 2050 would not be completely unrealistic, although it would represent quite an acceleration from the current 9" increase since the 50's. The problem is that the amount of ice is ridiculous. A complete melt of everything would correspond to about 230 feet of sea-level rise. Thermal expansion (warm water is less dense than cold water) would add another 70 feet or so to that, so figure around 300 feet total. Needless to say, that would be catastrophic and isn't going to happen. I'm simply mentioning it to show how insane the amount of ice is.

Anyway, 5 feet by 2050 could happen. In that case, about 700k Floridians would find their homes under water, mainly Miami-Dade and Broward County, along with Pinellas County (Tampa). This wouldn't happen overnight, though, but at a rate of a couple of inches a year on average. Historically, there have been significant swings (here is a link to the sea level changes for the Miami area since 1950), with an amplitude of about a couple of inches, so you could have no change one year and 4 inches the next. That sort of thing.

Still, at some point economics will kick in and it will be cheaper to do something about it than just to let things happen. The first few feet won't hurt too much (killing some prime real estate and putting about 50k people's homes under water), but it gets pretty bad pretty quickly after that.

As for what to do, just ask the Netherlands. Amsterdam is more than 5 feet below sea level (more like 6-7 feet) and is protected by some serious engineering projects, including a billion dollar sea wall. A billion dollars is nothing compared to the cost of wiping out the homes of half a million to a million people, though, so simple economics will dictate action.

In other words, no using flooding as an excuse to not have children.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2019, 10:01:16 am by fyo » Logged
Dolphster
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« Reply #27 on: September 19, 2019, 12:20:53 pm »

I'm still waiting on the "new ice age" that the "scientists" assured us was coming in the 1970s.   Alarmists have been entertaining intelligent people with their comedy gold for centuries.  And they always will. Wherever there is easy money to be made, there will be statistics to support it.
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CF DolFan
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« Reply #28 on: September 19, 2019, 03:06:51 pm »

I'm still waiting on the "new ice age" that the "scientists" assured us was coming in the 1970s.   Alarmists have been entertaining intelligent people with their comedy gold for centuries.  And they always will. Wherever there is easy money to be made, there will be statistics to support it.
Aren't we supposed to be sacrificing virgins or something to appease the gods? That was the original liberal view of us controlling mother nature. Now we throw money at her, tell people they are bad, and hope she is nice to us. Oh how we have evolved.
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Phishfan
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« Reply #29 on: September 19, 2019, 03:12:27 pm »

I have a really hard time believing the sincerity of your questions, but, no, Florida won't be entirely under water by 2050. The most extreme (pessimistic) models do have a very large portion of the state under water by 2100, though, but the assumption that the world would just continue to do nothing in the face of constant sea-level rise threatening every major coastal city is preposterous.

An increase of sea-level by 5 feet by 2050 would not be completely unrealistic, although it would represent quite an acceleration from the current 9" increase since the 50's. The problem is that the amount of ice is ridiculous. A complete melt of everything would correspond to about 230 feet of sea-level rise. Thermal expansion (warm water is less dense than cold water) would add another 70 feet or so to that, so figure around 300 feet total. Needless to say, that would be catastrophic and isn't going to happen. I'm simply mentioning it to show how insane the amount of ice is.

Anyway, 5 feet by 2050 could happen. In that case, about 700k Floridians would find their homes under water, mainly Miami-Dade and Broward County, along with Pinellas County (Tampa). This wouldn't happen overnight, though, but at a rate of a couple of inches a year on average. Historically, there have been significant swings (here is a link to the sea level changes for the Miami area since 1950), with an amplitude of about a couple of inches, so you could have no change one year and 4 inches the next. That sort of thing.

Still, at some point economics will kick in and it will be cheaper to do something about it than just to let things happen. The first few feet won't hurt too much (killing some prime real estate and putting about 50k people's homes under water), but it gets pretty bad pretty quickly after that.

As for what to do, just ask the Netherlands. Amsterdam is more than 5 feet below sea level (more like 6-7 feet) and is protected by some serious engineering projects, including a billion dollar sea wall. A billion dollars is nothing compared to the cost of wiping out the homes of half a million to a million people, though, so simple economics will dictate action.

In other words, no using flooding as an excuse to not have children.

Probably more appropriate to ask New Orleans geographically and that doesn't instill confidence.
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