Dolphin Power Rankings after Week 3: predictions

[Dolfanalyst]

Results are starting to come in:

ESPN, The Athletic, and The Sporting News all have the Dolphins #1 (shocked), with the Bills and Eagles taking second and third in mixed order.
The Ringer has the Dolphins 6th, Eagles 7th. The top 5 spots are the preseason favorites sans Rams: Bills, Chiefs, Packers, Bucs, Ravens - in that order.
Pro Football Network has switched to a "tiered ranking" for week 4, with the Dolphins and Eagles alone in Tier 1.
Yahoo! keeps the Bills on top, followed by the Eagles and Chiefs, then the Dolphins.

As of right now, the others have yet to be published.

This is one I'd give a good bit of credence:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nfl-predictions/

Notice it has the Giants where they belong in my opinion, despite their 2-1 record, along with a prediction that they finish the season 8-9.  Their current win percentage alone (67%) would predict nothing of the sort.

[Dolfanalyst]

We definitely aren't the best team in the league.

But we have the best track record, so the #1 ranking is just, if it is supposed to emulate college ranking.

We beat the Bills and Ravens -- arguably the two best teams in the AFC.  Our other win is the equivalent of a big name school that's having an off-year, but is a rival game.  And we beat them soundly.

The college rankings can be garbage at times as well.  This is a much better system:

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi

Consider that last year Cincinnati was deemed a CFP team but entered its game against Alabama double-digit underdogs, whereas multiple other teams would've provided much greater parity.  I realize there's a "reward" associated with regular season record, but with these power rankings (or ratings) the #1 goal should be prediction of future performance.

[Dave Gray]

I realize there's a "reward" associated with regular season record, but with these power rankings (or ratings) the #1 goal should be prediction of future performance.

If this is the case, then the Dolphins are ranked too high.  We're not a top 5 NFL team, I don't think.  We've played great, but I can think of many teams that would be favored over us on a neutral field.

[Fau Teixeira]

name 5 teams that are better than the dolphins.

[Spider-Dan]

So if I understand this correctly, a big reason behind MIA beating BUF is the "practice squad secondary" the Bills were forced to field in Miami.  Are all of their starters coming back next week? If not, why aren't they being ranked like a team with a practice squad secondary?

[fyo]

Results are starting to come in:

ESPN, The Athletic, and The Sporting News all have the Dolphins #1 (shocked), with the Bills and Eagles taking second and third in mixed order.
The Ringer has the Dolphins 6th, Eagles 7th. The top 5 spots are the preseason favorites sans Rams: Bills, Chiefs, Packers, Bucs, Ravens - in that order.
Pro Football Network has switched to a "tiered ranking" for week 4, with the Dolphins and Eagles alone in Tier 1.
Yahoo! keeps the Bills on top, followed by the Eagles and Chiefs, then the Dolphins.

As of right now, the others have yet to be published.

Rounding out the results:

nfl.com have the Dolphins 3rd, Bills 2nd, and the Eagles grabbing #1.
Pro Football Talk have the Dolphins #1, followed by the Eagles and Bills.
Sports Illustrated go Dolphins #1, followed by the Bills and then the Eagles.
CBS Sports has the Eagles #1, followed by the Dolphins and then the Bills.

The Ringer is the obvious outlier. Everyone else has the Dolphins, Eagles, and Bills in the top 3 spots, with the exception of Yahoo! that let the Chiefs slip into third, ahead of the Dolphins.

[Dave Gray]

name 5 teams that are better than the dolphins.

Bucs
Vikings
Packers
Rams
Eagles
Bills
Chiefs
Ravens
Bengals

I don't want to nitpick every choice, but here are several teams where we wouldn't be favored, probably.

That's not to say they've played better.

[Dolfanalyst]

Rounding out the results:

nfl.com have the Dolphins 3rd, Bills 2nd, and the Eagles grabbing #1.
Pro Football Talk have the Dolphins #1, followed by the Eagles and Bills.
Sports Illustrated go Dolphins #1, followed by the Bills and then the Eagles.
CBS Sports has the Eagles #1, followed by the Dolphins and then the Bills.

The Ringer is the obvious outlier. Everyone else has the Dolphins, Eagles, and Bills in the top 3 spots, with the exception of Yahoo! that let the Chiefs slip into third, ahead of the Dolphins.

These obviously vary on the basis of whether they use a "strength of record" or a more statistical approach.

This is a good rundown of that as applied to college football:

https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/125801/best-or-most-deserving-which-will-the-cfp-committee-value-on-tuesday

[Spider-Dan]

I just wanted to throw out a separate side prediction about the Eagles:

1) PHI is ranked #1 by at least 3 of the ranking sources listed above
2) PHI has a better ranking than MIA in at least 5 of the ranking sources listed above
3) PHI's average ranking among those ten sources is at least 1 full spot better than MIA's

Pretty hilarious that Pro Football Network changed their entire ranking system rather than give the Dolphins or Eagles the lone #1 spot.  In any case:

CBS Sports
MIA: 2 PHI: 1

NFL.com
MIA: 3 PHI: 1

The Athletic
MIA: 1 PHI: 2? (paywall, but implied in the page title)

Pro Football Talk
MIA: 1  PHI: 2

Yahoo Sports
MIA: 4 PHI: 2

Sports Illustrated
MIA: 1 PHI: 3

Pro Football Network
MIA: t-1 PHI: t-1

ESPN
MIA: 1 PHI: 3

The Ringer
MIA: 6 PHI: 7

The Sporting News
MIA: 1 PHI: 3

average MIA rank: 2.1
average PHI rank: 2.5

I hit on the first prediction, lost on the second, lost big on the third.  Six sources put MIA as #1, which I did not expect.

[CF DolFan]

Miami has beaten 3 very good teams and thus far has outperformed any other team in the league. They deserve to be ranked #1 until proven otherwise in my opinion.

[Spider-Dan]

Miami has beaten 3 very good teams and thus far has outperformed any other team in the league. They deserve to be ranked #1 until proven otherwise in my opinion.

Perhaps you failed to consider that BUF gained a lot of yards in their loss, which is almost the same as winning.
Therefore in a sense, they proved that they were better than the Dolphins, who merely scored more points.

[Pappy13]

Someone made a spreadsheet....

NFL Power Rankings combined week 3

[Dolfanalyst]

Perhaps you failed to consider that BUF gained a lot of yards in their loss, which is almost the same as winning.
Therefore in a sense, they proved that they were better than the Dolphins, who merely scored more points.

The point above has everything to do with the following distinction:

https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/125801/best-or-most-deserving-which-will-the-cfp-committee-value-on-tuesday

If power rankings are focused on determining the "most deserving" teams, then the Dolphins should be atop the league.  If on the other hand power rankings are focused on determining the "best" team (which in my view means the one expected to beat all other teams on a neutral field), then the Dolphins are not #1 at present.

There are better predictors of future performance than what the scoreboard says at the end of a mere one game.  Consider that if Miami and Buffalo played tomorrow on a neutral field, the opening line would favor Buffalo.

[Spider-Dan]

Consider that if Miami and Buffalo played tomorrow on a neutral field, the opening line would favor Buffalo.

Would BUF's secondary be healthy tomorrow?  Because that's the excuse that was trotted out repeatedly to dismiss Sunday's outcome.

If the argument is that a healthy Bills team should be expected to be better than the Dolphins in week 15 when they play again, then let's have that discussion when the Week 15 Power Rankings are being determined.  But the Bills team that exists today is not healthy, yet people insist on ranking them as if they were.

[CF DolFan]

Perhaps you failed to consider that BUF gained a lot of yards in their loss, which is almost the same as winning.
Therefore in a sense, they proved that they were better than the Dolphins, who merely scored more points.

LOL ... It's hard to fathom some people actually believe that results don't matter. Kim Bokamper from those dreaded Killer Bs of the Dolphins said that was a philosophy they followed. Make them go the length of the field and keep the big plays from happening. The more plays they ran the more opportunites our defense has to capitalize on their mistakes.

Sure seems like that's is how defense plays too. We'e won 3 big games in 3 different ways. I'd think that would count for something.