Shame of the game - At Packers

[Pappy13]

Bullshit reasoning. I don't recall ever seeing (and challenge anyone else to find an example) a hail mary pass being returned 100 yards the other way.

I remember the Bills handing the Jets a win 2 years ago when they tried to throw a pass while leading in the last minute or so of a game, had the ball stripped from the QB and the Jets ran it in for a TD to win the game.

There's lots of bad things that can happen, not just a 100 yard return.

[mecadonzilla]

Bullshit reasoning. I don't recall ever seeing (and challenge anyone else to find an example) a hail mary pass being returned 100 yards the other way.

To be fair, the end of half miracle play has already occurred once this season:  Redskins vs. Cowboys in week 1.

That being said, I don't like the decision to sit on it on the last play of the half.  Henne's got a cannon, so why not let him use it.  Plus, it's not like he was under any pressure on Sunday.

[CF DolFan]

Bullshit reasoning. I don't recall ever seeing (and challenge anyone else to find an example) a hail mary pass being returned 100 yards the other way.

Yeah ... we had our offense in there and not the special teams Tony!! 

[Phishfan]

Pappy, bad things don't happen in overtime either? I'll take my chance on a hail mary any day rather than rely on a coin flip.

That Redskins Dallas play was only like a 30 yard return. That can happen in any point of a game.

It worked out, but it was still not the call I agree with.

[Pappy13]

Pappy, bad things don't happen in overtime either? I'll take my chance on a hail mary any day rather than rely on a coin flip.

It worked out, but it was still not the call I agree with.

Fine, but that doesn't mean the reasoning is BS just because you don't agree with it. 

I think the important think to remember is that Sparano liked his chances in overtime better than the chances of a Hail Mary finding the endzone.  I think that says something about the team and him as a coach and to be honest, I like that attitude.

[Phishfan]

I didn't call it bullshit because I disagreed. I called it bullshit because he specifically said more bad things could happen than good. I disagree with that statement because an INT in that situation is going to play out as a neutral basically, unless they do the fluke return all the way which I already said I can't recall ever happening. You have more chance of something neutral happening, a medium chance of something good, and a very limited chance of something bad.

[Pappy13]

I called it bullshit because he specifically said more bad things could happen than good.

You honestly trying to tell me that you believe the chances of scoring a TD there are better than the chances that something bad happens?

Here are a few possible bad things that can happen.  It's not an all inclusive list, just a few.

1)  Int returned for a TD.
2)  QB is stripped and fumble returned for a TD.
3)  Ball is snapped over the QB's head and returned for a TD.
4)  QB is sacked and injured and removed from the game.
5)  Another offensive player is hurt and removed from the game.

You really think the odds of scoring are better than the odds of one of those things or something else bad that I didn't think of happening?   I don't and neither does Sparano.  #5 alone is a GOOD possibility on ANY play, not just a Hail Mary, much better than odds of scoring anyway.

And yes I realize that any of that can happen in OT as well, but the odds of a successfull play in OT are a LOT better than getting a 53 yard TD play when they know that it's the only possible play you can run.

[Phishfan]

1)  Int returned for a TD.
2)  QB is stripped and fumble returned for a TD.
3)  Ball is snapped over the QB's head and returned for a TD.
4)  QB is sacked and injured and removed from the game.
5)  Another offensive player is hurt and removed from the game.

1) As discussed, I've never seen it happen on a hail mary and no one has said they have either
2) Very unlikely as teams drop in coverage on hail mary plays. No one blitzes or hardly even rushes more than 3
3) I'll give you the snap over the head, but returning for a TD I still say unlikely. Fall on the ball and again it is what I called a neutral play. Remember teams don't pressure much in this situation.
4) Again highly unlikely as teams don't pressure the QB. Chances of that happening are probably greater in OT anyway.
5) That can happen on any play as you pointed out. You could lose them in OT where you are going to be playing more than one snap. The chances again are probably better of suffering an injury in OT. You shouldn't coach with that philosophy.

Look we can agree to disagree on this because you are not going to change my mind. How many times do you see a team lose a game while throwing a hail mary with a tied score? I've seen more team win than have the play cost them the game, so yes the odds are in your favor that you win or stay tied. Either way, you gave winning a shot.

[Pappy13]

How many times do you see a team lose a game while throwing a hail mary with a tied score?

How many times do you see a team win a game while throwing a hail mary with a tied score?  Show me an example of a game winning over 50 yard TD on the last play of the game that was tied.  Not where the team was behind and you have to try the play, but one where the game was tied and going to overtime and they decided to throw it up for grabs and they scored.  NFL game please, PoP Warner doesn't count.

I've seen countless times where a team that was losing attempts a Hail Mary and it's either intercepted or falls incomplete.  The difference is that the team is already winning, there's no reason for them to attempt to run it back for a TD or even attempt to intercept it, they are already winning the game, the game is over.  In the situation that we are concerned with the game is not over if it's intercepted, it's still tied, running it back for a TD is a real possibility.

[Phishfan]

How many times do you see a team win a game while throwing a hail mary with a tied score?  Show me an example of a game winning over 50 yard TD on the last play of the game that was tied.  Not where the team was behind and you have to try the play, but one where the game was tied and going to overtime and they decided to throw it up for grabs and they scored.  NFL game please, PoP Warner doesn't count.

I've seen countless times where a team that was losing attempts a Hail Mary and it's either intercepted or falls incomplete.  The difference is that the team is already winning, there's no reason for them to attempt to run it back for a TD or even attempt to intercept it, they are already winning the game, the game is over.  In the situation that we are concerned with the game is not over if it's intercepted, it's still tied, running it back for a TD is a real possibility.

Show me the percentage of games that go into OT anyway (a small percentage so my pool to choose from is rather limited). Give it a break. I said you aren't going to change my mind.

[Pappy13]

Pappy, if you re-watch the play, you can tell.  He saw the confusion and the huge hole and said "take what I can get"   I believe it was an audible on the field as a reaction to the defensive confusion.

They showed the replay of the Dolphins/Packers game last night on the NFL network and they showed Rogers talking about that 4th down play after the game.  The play was indeed designed to work exactly like it was run.  It was not a case of Rogers seeing the middle of the field open and changing the play, that was the play called, spread out the field and sneak it, right down to the fact that he's supposed to walk up to the line and make it look like he's audibling and then sneak it.  If you watch the play the center even touches his leg to indicate to Rogers which side of the center he's supposed to run.  It was a beautifully designed play, almost on par with the "fake spike" that Marino ran.  Give the Packers play caller credit.

I also watched the replay of the Ronnie Brown 4th down attempt and I'm more convinced than ever that it was a 1st down.  At no time did he even look mildly down until he was well past the 26 yard line.  When you watch it on replay his foream does not appear to be down, he simply puts his hand down to maintain his balance and his elbow bends a bit, but then he pushes himself back up and continues to move.  His knees never touch the ground and his elbow never touches the ground.  The refs simply blew the spot and they declined to overrule the play although I'm still not sure why.  The only thing I could come up with is that you can't really see the ball when Ronnie's knee does touch the ground, you only see his back and therefore you have no definitive spot of the ball from that angle, but it's clear that it was passed the 26 yard line unless the ball is between Ronnies knees which clearly it wasn't.  Maybe they decided since you can't definatively spot the ball, you have to go with the spot on the field.

[Pappy13]

Show me the percentage of games that go into OT anyway (a small percentage so my pool to choose from is rather limited). Give it a break. I said you aren't going to change my mind.

My point exactly.  Most teams don't even attempt a hail mary with the game tied, it's a very low success rate.  Your chances of winning the coin toss and winning in OT are better.  We agree to disagree.

[Dave Gray]

You honestly trying to tell me that you believe the chances of scoring a TD there are better than the chances that something bad happens?

I would say yes.  I think the chances of something good (TD catch, defensive penalty of any kind) happening far outweigh the chances of something bad (turnover resulting in TD).

INT, fumbles, etc -- they only matter if it's returned for a score.  Even things like offensive penalties won't matter, because it runs out the clock.

[Spider-Dan]

Turnover combined with penalty means you lose the game on a FG.

[Philly Fin Fan]

I don't know if its been said or not, but by kneeling on it, you are also putting a lot of faith into luck: winning the coin toss. Its possible the other team wins the toss, and you don't even see the ball. So with that being the case, you may as well throw up a hail mary and try to win without relying on luck.

You're also relying on the ref correctly hearing your call on the coin toss- I still remember the Steelers game where Jerome Bettis called heads and the ref said "Steelers called tails, its heads, Steelers lose the toss". (I think the Steelers still ended up winning the game)