Who will be the GOP nominee?

[Spider-Dan]

The extremists in her own party hate her, but a run of the mill republican would choose her over Biden.  But yeah, democrats are going to vote for Biden over her. 

So she would get very-little-to-none of the Democratic vote, and some portion of the Republican vote.  That would be... fewer votes than Trump, who lost to Biden.  I don't see how that means she could win a general.

[Spider-Dan]

DeSantis is doing fine right now by basically ignoring Trump and letting him act a fool.

DeSantis isn't "doing fine"; he's just the closest loser.  In the winner-take-all GOP state primaries, a close loss is exactly the same as a blowout loss.  DeSantis will never be able to actually pass Trump without taking him head on, and the moment he does that, Meatball Ron's support will crater.

Attacking Trump and using media talking points is a death sentence in a primary, which is why no one else stands a chance aside from "Meatball Ron". Like with all bullies, Trump can be defeated by respectfully pointing out the wrong things he did, that way if they win the nomination they won't lose his base since he never attacked him personally.

And what are the "wrong things Trump did" that are not "media talking points"?
You're definitely not referring to any of his multiple allegations of sexual misconduct, right?  Nor are you referring to his attempted extortion of Ukraine that he was impeached over, or his attempt to overthrow the government on 1/6 that he was impeached for again.  You're not referring to his world-worst COVID death count, or being the only US president in recorded history to have a net loss of jobs over his presidency.  Hell, you're not even referring to his calls to assault the press, or his fawning praise of Putin, Xi, and Kim.

So what "wrongs" remain for DeSantis to respectfully call out Trump over?  You might as well be trying to describe a four-sided triangle.  The GOP has been fully converted to a Trumpist cult, and ANY direct criticism of him will be seen as treason.  This is exactly the reason why all of them are terrified of taking him on!

[dolphins4life]

Maybe we should not consider DeSantis a candidate until he confirms he is going to run.

Playing possum is an effective strategy, as the Democrats have shown, but he actually needs to run run if he wants to be elected.

Without mail-in ballots, Trump wins easily in 2024

With them, he does not stand a chance.  

[Dave Gray]

I would combine #3 to include both "never Trumpers" and the folks ended their support for Trump ~1/6/21. 

Liz Chenney and Adam Kinzinger occupy the same lane as Larry Hogan and Mitt Romney. 

I agree.  I'm just using that as a phrase.  What I mean is someone who will openly say that they will not support him even if he's the chosen nominee.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Absentee ballots go back to the 17th century and predates the country, it wasn't widespread until the election of 1864.  I voted by mail in 1986 and 1988.

[Spider-Dan]

Please don't allow the discussion to get sidetracked into boogeymen dropping massive dumps of mail-in ballots.  We're talking about the GOP primary.

[DenverFinFan]

Well as of today I say it’s Trump, he wins in a crowded field. Now the only question is does the rest of the field drop out before South Carolina ( or Super Tuesday) and let him go head to head with the closest competitor? ( likely Meatball at this point )..


But so much can happen before then, something major could happen in this country or someone can come out of nowhere and capture the GOP imagination which is as easy as entertaining a toddler.

[Dave Gray]

Well as of today I say it’s Trump, he wins in a crowded field.

I don't see a crowded field happening.

I don't think there's money to support it.  In the past, there were lots of open lanes, you had your fiscal conservative, your religious conservative, your libertarian, your establishment, your tea-party guy, etc.   But this is a weird cycle because Trump is essentially running as an incumbent that's getting challenged, even though he technically isn't one.  I think you're in for a two horse race, with maybe a 3rd person after the initial dust settles.


I have a feeling we'll learn pretty quick what's possible though.  Trump isn't gaining support.  So, it's just a question of how much he has when it gets down to actual voting.

[Spider-Dan]

Trump is still leading the polls, and he's barely started attacking potential rivals.  Nothing has changed.

[DenverFinFan]

I don't see a crowded field happening.

I don't think there's money to support it.  In the past, there were lots of open lanes, you had your fiscal conservative, your religious conservative, your libertarian, your establishment, your tea-party guy, etc.   But this is a weird cycle because Trump is essentially running as an incumbent that's getting challenged, even though he technically isn't one.  I think you're in for a two horse race, with maybe a 3rd person after the initial dust settles.


I have a feeling we'll learn pretty quick what's possible though.  Trump isn't gaining support.  So, it's just a question of how much he has when it gets down to actual voting.

We will know soon enough. Haley is already in, Pence is likely to run,  meatball is likely to run..while not crowded as 16 or 20’ for the democrats it would still divide it enough, and I expect Hawley and Flynn might jump in.

Either way none of them are good. I wish I could feel better with Trump not being as strong and having a real shot of losing, but any of these people scares me to death.

[CF DolFan]

Trump is still leading the polls, and he's barely started attacking potential rivals.  Nothing has changed.

None recent that I have seen. Ever time he attacks DeSantis his popularity in the party goes down.

From NPR just today ...

By a 54% to 42%, Republicans and independents who lean their direction said they think they would have a better chance in 2024 with someone other than Trump. That's actually a slight improvement for Trump, considering 35% in November said Trump would give them the best chance at winning.

Still, the percentage saying they would be better off with someone else hasn't budged. And there are clear cleavages — voters with college degrees, ones who make more than $50,000 a year and parents with children under 18 are far more likely to say they'd be better off with someone else, by 20 points or more in some cases.

That means a majority of Republicans are looking around for someone else, and the very people who think they have less of a chance with Trump seem to have DeSantis in the sights.

[CF DolFan]

I have a feeling we'll learn pretty quick what's possible though.  Trump isn't gaining support.  So, it's just a question of how much he has when it gets down to actual voting.

Sadly  for the GOP ... if Trump wins the nomination there are many who voted for him previously that will no longer and he didn't have enough to win last time.

I heard someone from the GOP that everyone other than Donald and Ron are running for vice president or cabinet staff and they know it.

[Spider-Dan]

None recent that I have seen. Ever time he attacks DeSantis his popularity in the party goes down.

That's not what I've seen.  From Friday, 2/17:

DeSantis approval drops in GOP primary: poll

From NPR just today ...

By a 54% to 42%, Republicans and independents who lean their direction said they think they would have a better chance in 2024 with someone other than Trump. That's actually a slight improvement for Trump, considering 35% in November said Trump would give them the best chance at winning.

First, that sounds like Trump is improving, solidifying his lead on the nomination.
Second, I'd like to see what those numbers were in 2016, when there was significantly more concern about Trump's electability yet he easily smashed the entire GOP primary field.

[Spider-Dan]

As of this morning:

Trump 50%
DeSantis 30%
Pence 6%
Haley 6%

This... is not close.
If DeSantis announces his candidacy, Trump is going to humiliate him; as I said before, Scott Walker 2.0.

[Dave Gray]

I think it's just too early to read polls.  It can go either way, but once this all becomes official and we see them on a debate stage -- there's questions of how much shade the GOP will throw at Trump.  Will he be accused of trying to overthrow the government by his own party?  And will they say he isn't fit for office?

That's what it will take.  It's hard to kiss his ass, talk about how great he is, and then have a strategy that says "but vote for me instead."