Komrade Conrad
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« Reply #47 on: May 13, 2006, 10:29:12 pm » |
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I think the best way to determine game outcomes in advance, is to assign strength values to each team and then do outright comparisons i.e. Pittsburgh could be like 9.5 versus the Dolphin team at, say hmmm, 5.5 and adjust points for home field, back-to-back road games, and even bye weeks if you want. The NFL schedules of every team have to be processed the same way. I found that once you add point to Miami for HFA, then on Pitt's schedule you have to do a matching subtraction, and the same for each adjustment. Not easy to get it straight, but the thing is debugged by adding the resultant standings of all teams. It will not balance at first, so you select every team and recheck the values week-to-week, until it balances.
It still comes down to using accurate strength ratings, but the probabilities are determined after the game comparison rather than a priori, and are based on the point difference obtained. I found that in some weeks, there were a whole bunch of tight spreads and other weeks had wider margins. You could asses the fairness of each team's schedule also, for example the San Diego Chargers played the most back-to-back road games and teams after their byes, so they did not make the playoffs.
I used well-known publications' ratings like Lindy's, adjusted for pre-season action and trades or injuries. Team strength ratings have to be adjusted week-to-week this way, so that changes the predicted outcomes thoughout the season. The errors that cancelled out do surface sometime during these strength rating adjustments.
Last season the season's predictions were cake, since most here followed the pack, just like nobody so far guessed an 8-8 2006. The Fins are definitely rebuilding their secondary and the QB / offensive coordinator situation is still up in the air, making it a hard problem for me to settle out. Ricky Williams is now gone. The problem of having too many chefs may affect the quality of the soup, also.
So I'll stick with my low-ball 8-8 until I iron out the schedule, and then make a final estimate. The key is to understand the other teams completely, and not focus solely on the Dolphins facing the rest of the NFL. I remember Saban as not a winning coach, but as a team-builder. The offense and secondary may yet be a work in progress, but I think the Phins will hold their own and not be a division chump as long as Saban presides.
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