Playoff thread

[Fau Teixeira]

Let's assume Miami loses to KC

No

[Tenshot13]

I am not assuming Miami wins the Bengals game

Let's assume Miami loses to KC

You're just a negative Nancy all the time aren't you?

[Pappy13]

He's just not a football fan. He enjoys delving into statistics, probabilities, rules etc but he has no real interest in football itself. That's pretty obvious from his comments.

[masterfins]

This thread seems to ignore the fact that Miami can win the division.  The Bills aren't that great.  Next up the Bills play Pittsburg that will want to bounce back from a loss; after that they go on the road to Denver and New England - both teams are picking up speed.  Miami will play the Chiefs and Patriots at home, then on the road to LV.  So the final game of the season with Miami at Buffalo can still decide the division winner.

[dolphins4life]

After tonight, that got much harder

[dolphins4life]

We could wind up in the same situation the Steelers were in 2018, where the whole fanbase stayed behind to watch the Browns games.   

[Tenshot13]

After tonight, that got much harder

[EDGECRUSHER]

What is the tiebreaker situation for the division with Buffalo? If we beat them in Week 17 and have the same record, who wins?

[Tenshot13]

What is the tiebreaker situation for the division with Buffalo? If we beat them in Week 17 and have the same record, who wins?

    Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
    Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
    Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
    Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
    Strength of victory.
    Strength of schedule.
    Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
    Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
    Best net points in common games.
    Best net points in all games.
    Best net touchdowns in all games.
    Coin toss

The Bills are 4-0 in the Division while Miami is 2-2.  We have games against the Pats and Bills left, they have games against us and the Pats left.  Assuming we win both and they lose both, that would put us both at 4-2 in the division.  It then goes to the next tiebreaker, common games.  That one gets a bit more complicated, I'm not sure who wins the division after that.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Wish we didn't start off the year against the Pats and Bills, we didn't even get our footing yet.

Either way, we have to basically win every game except the Chiefs and hope that the Bills lose at least to the Steelers before they lose to us, then who knows with the tiebreakers. I read that conference record is the 3rd tiebreaker, that makes more sense. That would be close too, then strength of schedule which Buffalo would have.

Yeah, we're pretty much screwed for the division unless we have a better record than Buffalo. On the bright side, they may not play all their starters in Week 17 if the division is wrapped up and there is nothing to be gained for seeding.

[fyo]

Seems unlikely we'll win the division, given the tie-breakers. Those last four games are pretty brutal and I could see us lose all 4. Probably the most likely outcome is we win 2, but I wouldn't be surprised with 1 or even 3 wins (the latter being the less likely, IMHO). At 10-6 it would probably come down to the game against the Raiders. 10-6 with a win in that one and odds are good we'd get the 7th seed.

[dolphins4life]

Got some great number crunching to share with you guys after the game

[EDGECRUSHER]

A Cowboys win tonight puts Baltimore 2 games behind us for the playoff spot and shoots Dallas up to 4-8 with the Texans. Keep that pick in the Top 10 for us.

[Spider-Dan]

MIA can no longer beat BUF on tiebreakers.

Division teams play against the same opponents for 14 of their games, with the two exceptions being two intraconference opponents that finished in the same division placing last season.

For 4th-place MIA, those games were JAX (W) and CIN (W).
For 2nd-place BUF, those games were TEN (L) and PIT (TBD).

If MIA and BUF finish with the same overall record, then by definition BUF must have at least one more win among the 14 games they have played common opponents (or else BUF would be at least one loss back).

MIA finishes with a better record or BUF wins the division.  It's that simple.

[dolphins4life]

Refs have screwed us two nights in a row