Who will be the GOP nominee?

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Asa Hutchinson joins the race,  He is very similar to Nikki.  Has been critical around the edges of Trump, but has never took a strong stance against him, and often sidestepped or defended his horrid behavior.   

[Dave Gray]

^ He's saying that Trump should drop out, so he's doing more than Haley.  Like I said, there is a lane for someone to take that is staunchly anti-Trump.  Maybe Asa is that guy.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

^ He's saying that Trump should drop out, so he's doing more than Haley.  Like I said, there is a lane for someone to take that is staunchly anti-Trump.  Maybe Asa is that guy.

That is not his lane.  He is a "Trump should move aside for the benefit of the party" guy.  Not a " Trump's conduct disqualifies him" guy.

[Spider-Dan]

Cowards, as far as the eye can see.  Every one of them is waiting for Someone Else to step up and take on Trump directly.

You have to be a pretty pathetic wimp to enter a primary against someone you refuse to criticize directly.  Why even bother running?
This nomination is already locked up.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Cowards, as far as the eye can see.  Every one of them is waiting for Someone Else to step up and take on Trump directly.

You have to be a pretty pathetic wimp to enter a primary against someone you refuse to criticize directly.  Why even bother running?
This nomination is already locked up.

They aren't willing to kill the king.  They are waiting for the king to die to fight for the inheritance.

[Spider-Dan]

Then why challenge him?

Watch 2024 from your couch with your MAGA hat on, and wait until 2028.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Then why challenge him?

Watch 2024 from your couch with your MAGA hat on, and wait until 2028.

With his age, diet, exercise, stress and BMI decent chance he dies of a heart attack before the convention.

And even if he isn’t physically dead, a felony conviction could kill his political chances.  Some states don’t allow felons to vote, run for office or appear on the ballot.

[Spider-Dan]

As of last week, 538 has it at Trump 49.3%, DeSantis 26.2%.

Since Trump's criminal indictment, he is pulling away.  An actual Trump conviction would likely increase his primary polling even further.

[Dave Gray]

Desantis is playing this very strangely.

He should attack electability; that is Trump's biggest weakness in a primary.  Instead, he's doing weird shit that won't help him beat Trump and will also hurt him in the general if he were to beat Trump.

[dolphins4life]

Desantis is playing this very strangely.

He should attack electability; that is Trump's biggest weakness in a primary.  Instead, he's doing weird shit that won't help him beat Trump and will also hurt him in the general if he were to beat Trump.

It could be that he just doesn't want to run for President.  He has never indicated in the slightest that he wants to run for President.

[Dave Gray]

He has never indicated in the slightest that he wants to run for President.

Uhh....he's doing all the things someone does when they ARE going to run for president, including not saying that he isn't, when asked.

He might not now, since he's getting whooping in all the polls.

[CF DolFan]

Uhh....he's doing all the things someone does when they ARE going to run for president, including not saying that he isn't, when asked.

He might not now, since he's getting whooping in all the polls.

At this point in 2015 Jeb Bush led the polls with Trump in 3rd or 4th. We are still very early in the process and national polls don't really reflect anything. It's a state by state process and popularity changes several times throughout the process. In fact I'd argue, like in the case of with Hillary and Obama, that many times the front runner runs out of gas once the new person starts getting equal attention.  

[Dave Gray]

^ Yeah, this is true, but for announced candidates.

It's not really common for everyone to assume you're running, never poll very high, and then announce your candidacy late.


I listen to a good political podcast and they made a good point -- you need to announce your run at the right time so that your supporters have somewhere to "go".  They use Obama as an example -- he started to have a groundswell of donor support and people who wanted to work for his campaign -- so he announced so that he could take advantage of those tools.

Desantis probably missed his popularity window for things like that.  A few months ago he was more beloved than he is now -- it would've benefitted him to grab the opportunity at the time but now he's waning.


It's not that he can't come back, but he's definitely less valuable than he was a few months back.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

There is a difference between polling data on Trump 2023 and Bush 2015.  If you support Trump after everything, than their is literally nothing that would cause you to stop supporting him.  And it would be equally impossible for him to gain support from those who oppose him.  The Haley vs DeSantos numbers can move but Trump's numbers are fixed.

[Phishfan]

There is a difference between polling data on Trump 2023 and Bush 2015.  If you support Trump after everything, than their is literally nothing that would cause you to stop supporting him.  And it would be equally impossible for him to gain support from those who oppose him.  The Haley vs DeSantos numbers can move but Trump's numbers are fixed.

I said the same about Hillary when she ran. I don't know why the Democrats didn't try harder to push a different option.